Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

Week 7: Hot and Not — The Ballparks

May 22, 2008 — If you've been a long-time reader of MOTY Talk, you probably remember our post a few years ago about "ballpark factors." Well, 7 weeks into this season seems like a good time to bust that bad boy back out and examine just how much of an advantage, or disadvantage, ballparks are giving hitters in 2008. A Hot and Not focusing on ballparks instead of ball players, if you will. A little extra insight to help you manage your rosters through this critical time of the season. We think you’ll find the results, MOTY-style, very interesting.

Minute Maid Park, Citizens Bank Ballpark, Great American Ball Park, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Rangers Ballpark (formerly Ameriquest Field) — everybody knows these are “Hitters’ Parks.” Or are they?

And, of course, Coors Field used to top the list, year after year, as THE Hitters’ Park. Then they ushered in the humidor era and leveled the playing ground. Or did they?

On the flip side, deciding to activate a pitcher because he’s scheduled to take the mound in PETCO Park, Shea, AT&T Park, Dodger Stadium or Safeco has always been the ... ahem ... safe bet. But should it be?

Truth is that the phrase “Hitters’ Park” is somewhat misleading because most people equate home run frequency with hitter-friendly, whether they realize it or not (which is to say, they're just regurgitating what other people, magazines and “experts” say). Granted, home runs are a decent indicator, but last time we checked, yours, ours, everyone’s fantasy baseball league scored more offensive categories than just home runs. Otherwise, we’d all be playing … yaaaaaaawn … "Home Run Derby,” not roto or H2H fantasy.

Runs scored really is a greater measure, since scoring runs is the whole point of the game. And everything that leads to, or helps predict, more runs scored translates into greater offensive production. Hmm, sounds a lot like a batter’s MOTY#. You know, if we had all the stats for the ballparks that we need to generate a batter’s MOTY#, we could … generate MOTY#s for each ballpark … then rank them.

Well, of course, we have all the stats we need. So, obviously, ranking them is exactly what we did.

Listed below are all 30 MLB ballparks ranked by their overall hitting MOTY#s. Keep in mind, the stats and MOTY#s for each do not represent their home team’s offensive numbers — they’re the overall offensive production for each particular ballpark, which includes the home club’s and the visiting team’s stats combined.

This should open your eyes — and mind — as to who to start and who to bench based on game location.

But, before you start scouring the list, we should point out a few things. First, the stats are through Week 7 (Sunday, May 18). Next, the ballparks are ranked by an “Adjusted MOTY#.” Reason being, not every team has played the same number of home games, so obviously some parks have put up greater offensive numbers because they’ve hosted more games. (The average number of home games per ballpark through May 18 was 22.03 gp, which was used to create the relative factor leading to the “Adjusted MOTY#” … essentially what each park's overall offensive value would be had they all “hosted” exactly the same number of games.)

So, the rankings give you the Actual MOTY# and Adjusted MOTY# for each ballpark. Plus, the stats for the 5x5 scoring categories, as well as OPS — again, totals that combine both home and visiting team production. Also notice that we've included the “Average” MLB ballpark for an interesting point of reference, the MOTY# being generated by the average of all the offensive stats required by the MOTY# algorithms.

MLB Ballpark Rankings

Ranked by Adj. MOTY# — home team + opponent's production

First things first. To define the breaks between Hitters’, Neutral and Pitchers’ parks, we started with the average Adj. MOTY#, 84.72. Every ballpark with an Adj. MOTY# 10 pts or greater than average, we considered a “Hitter’s Park.” Every ballpark with an Adj. MOTY# 10 pts or less than average, we defined as a “Pitcher’s Park.” Every field in between, from 94.72 to 74.72, “Neutral.” Your basic standard deviation from average.

Now, a lot of the usual suspects fall in line among the Hitters’ Parks — Rangers, Chase and Minute Maid. And looks like ye olde humidor in Coors ain’t so airtight in ’08. ’Course the Rockies starting pitching (with apologies to Mr. Cook) haven’t been any great shakes so far. Comerica used to be where long balls went to die, a real Pitchers’ Park, but moving the left field fence in a few years back and the payroll up since then sure do make a difference (and it’s not because of Detroit’s abysmal starting pitching through Week 7 — the Tigers have hit 21 homers in Comerica, they’re opponents … 22).

The two really interesting parks at the top of the list are Wrigley and Dolphin, for two different reasons. Wrigley is widely-regarded as a Hitters’ Park, balls have a way of keepin-on-keepin-on there, especially when the wind is blowing out. But the interesting thing is that the Cubbies offense has accounted for 81% of the production at Wrigley Field — a MOTY# of 110.25 vs 36.06 for their opponents. The Cubs are pounding the ball and their pitching has been very good. In this instance, it’s the team as much, if not more, than the ballpark making the difference. As for Dolphin Stadium … what’s it even doing with the Hitters’ Parks?! Talk about a fish out of water, Dolphin is one of the notorious Pitchers’ Parks. Always has been. Until you realize … hey, these guys can hit!

As for the Neutral Parks, Citizens Bank is on the cusp of the Hitters’ Parks, where it will eventually find itself when Mr. Howard heats up (which seems to be happening now). Dodger Stadium, the historical Pitchers’ Park is notably higher than you (or Joe Torre) would expect. Same with Safeco. While U.S. Cellular and especially Great American Ball Park are MUCH lower in the rankings than anyone could have imagined, both closer to the Pitchers’ Parks than Hitters’. Don't expect it to last. Adam Dunn has clearly taken it upon himself of late to get the Cincy launching pad back up to ERA-bloating stature.

Looking at the Pitchers’ Parks, Shea, McAfee and PETCO are right where we almost always find them. Tropicana’s a bit of a surprise.

But the real story is PETCO. Not because it’s the #30 offensive park (or, flip the switch, the #1 pitching paradise), but because it’s not even close, lagging more than 22 pts behind McAfee, the #29 Hitter’s Park. Three reasons: PETCO truly is a Pitcher’s Park, Jake Peavy (till this week’s arm woes) and the Padres lineup really is that bad. Add ’em all up and you get “Suck City.” 114 runs? 22 homers? A 0.211 avg?! And 0.596 ops?!!!! That’s just ridonculously bad (“ridiculous” even by donkey standards). When G.M. Kevin Towers said there’d be wholesale changes if things didn’t turn around soon, maybe he meant they’d be changing the name of “PETCO Park” to “Mario Mendoza Memorial Stadium.”

Or better yet, “The Grand Canyon.”

Questions, thoughts, cool stories of how the MOTY System has helped your fantasy baseball team? Drop us an email. Your comments might show up here in a future MOTY Talk.

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