Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

The Player Who’s Improved Your Pitching Staff the Most

September 12, 2005 — Brian Roberts’ volcanic first half. Derrek Lee’s unforeseen triple crown campaign. Palmeiro’s ten-day vacation. Keith Foulke’s disappearing act. And the kids who’ve kept the Braves on top.

2005 has served up as many, if not more, surprises as any fantasy baseball season in a while. And all have directly impacted your team’s season and league rankings — for better or worse. But the most surprising factor affecting the game this season is one you might not have even noticed.

Walks allowed.

“Yeah, right, like walks make that big a difference,” you might be thinking. “Gimme a break. I play 5x5 and walks only impact whip … and only half of that.”

Hear that gurgling-hiss in the kitchen? Coffee’s done. Grab yourself a cup, pull up a chair and get a load of the facts, comparing 2005 and 2004 numbers through Week 23:

Overall, pitchers are having a doozie of year. 822 fewer walks. That’s more than a 6% reduction from last year, which might sound insignificant, until you consider it another way — that’s 822 fewer base runners. Also known as 822 fewer scoring opportunities, 822 fewer base stealing opportunities, 822 situations in which the pitcher’s attention isn’t divided between a runner on first and the guy at the plate.

Ye olde atmosphere still smelleth of skepticism, so let’s take a more in-depth look at the numbers:

First, let’s set the context because you could easily – and rightly – say, “Oh, sure, there’ve been 822 fewer walks given up this year, but there could’ve been fewer games played.”

Fair enough. Until you check out a couple of things — “at bats” are only down by 100 in 2005 … out of 141,700, give or take. Totally insignificant. Then look at “wins” for pitchers, which tell us how many games have been played to date (since every game played is won by somebody). What you see is that there have only been 17 more games played in 2005 than 2004. Again, virtually no difference. However, there have been a total of 878 more innings pitched in 2005 in only 17 more games, which … hmmmm … suggests more extra inning games (essentially pitching duels after the 9th inning).

Now, let’s consider the 2005 numbers: -698 earned runs, -.18 in era, -.04 in whip, +17 wins (though that’s relative to games played), +12 saves, -673 K, and -306 hits allowed. True, strikeouts are down as well, but only at a 2% clip as compared to the 6% decrease in walks.

Still think the -822 walks haven’t had any impact? Take a gander at the 2005 offensive production: -816 runs scored, -358 hr, -785 rbi, -0.002 avg., +30 sb (as well as -39 caught stealing). Power’s down, steals are up slightly — is this a return to small ball? Maybe, maybe not.

Either way, the case for “walks not allowed” has been made. But why the reduction? Have pitchers – overall – gained greater command? Has the strike zone expanded? Considering that strikeouts are down as well, seems there’s something else at work here. Or rather — not at work.

In a word, the difference is … Bonds.

Okay, okay, so Barry alone doesn’t account for the -822 walks, but he is the flag bearer for a handful of guys who do. Take a look:

That’s just five players accounting for 559 walks in 2004. Five players who MOTY projected to account for 521 free passes by this time in 2005 (just 38 less than they recorded last year through Week 23). And yet, five players who have only walked 172 times in 2005. The difference in walks generated by these five players between 2004 and 2005 is -387, or 43.8% of the downward trend.

Say again — five players … 43.8%.

And Sir Barry, all by his lonesome? -203 walks. 23% of the difference.

One player. 23%.

Now, include just 5 more notable players to the pool:

Ten players, -518 walks, accounting for 63% of the difference between 2004 and 2005. The common denominators for these guys in 2005 — games lost to injury, age or a combination of the two. Which does make one wonder…

But let’s leave conspiracy theories behind and focus on the facts.

The -882 difference in walks allowed has played a major role in shaping this season. And no one’s absence as contributed to that difference more than Barry Bonds.

One player. 23% difference.

If you’re atop the pitching categories in your league, you might consider sending Mr. Bonds a thank you note.