Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

MOTY Subscriber Question #4

April 8, 2006 — Subscribers are always encouraged and free to submit questions, thoughts or anecdotes to MOTY Talk. Periodically, when we feel a subscriber’s email would be helpful to other fantasy baseball fans, we’ll post it and MOTY’s response for all to read.

2006 Stats

I’m only seeing 2005 stats; will we be able to get the 2006 stats as the season has now started?

Thanks,
Peter Erikson
Bakersfield, CA

Peter,

Absolutely. In fact, that’s where the MOTY System really kicks into gear, helping you find unexpected, productive players … as well as the guys who are under performing.

Beginning April 10, we’ll deliver weekly, updated stats (supplied by STATS), MOTY#s and MOTY rankings – every Monday morning – for the entire 26-week season.

That’s the short answer. But the “weekly” aspect begs a more in-depth explanation, so humor us if you will:

We provide updates on a weekly basis, as opposed to daily, for a couple of reasons. The main one being that 7 days worth of action provides a more reliable sample of production for evaluating players.

For example, Chris Shelton hit 2 hr on Opening Day and went 3-for-5 Wednesday (4/5/06) with 1 run scored. Will he keep up this pace? Impossible to say. Maybe he just loves hitting in Kauffman Stadium where the Tigers opened the season against the Royals. Two games just aren’t enough to determine if he’s really hot or simply enjoying two stellar games in a row … only to go 0-for-10 the next 3 games. Hey, it happens all the time.

But with a deeper sample of games and stats, you get a more accurate reflection of what’s really going on, who’s really hot and who’s really not. You get true “trends” and not just one or two day “spikes.”

This approach is especially helpful when evaluating hitters in platoon situations and starting pitchers who only play every 5 days.

Ryan Freel stole 3 bases Wednesday. Do you drop everything and pick him up off the wire (if he’s on it)? Maybe, maybe not. He’s currently pegged as the utility man without a starting position, meaning he may not play the next 2 games – or start every game for the rest of the week – who’s to say? If he doesn’t play for 2 games, he’s not really on a 3 sb/game pace, he’s on a 1 sb/game pace. And not as “valuable” as Wednesday’s one-game sample suggests.

A good pitcher example would be Sergio Mitre of the Marlins who beat the Astros Tuesday night (4/4/06):  5 K’s, 3 hits, 1 bb in 6 ip. (Of course, the fact that the Fish scored 11 runs in those 6 ip didn’t hurt). But given that single start, do you run out and pick up Mitre? Maybe, maybe not — it was after all, just one game. He pitches again on Sunday in Shea. If he throws darts, well, we’ll have a more reliable, two-game sample (within a 7-day period) that tells us something … we’ll see a “hot trend.” Then again, if he gets shelled we know that there’s no real trend to hang our hat on yet, and going gaga for him after one game was premature.

On the flip side, do you drop Andy Pettitte who got shelled for 10 runs, 13 hits and 1 bb in 4.667 ip in that same game against Florida? Same answer — a one game sample just doesn’t give us an accurate enough picture.

Another reason we go the weekly route is that it creates the most relative point of reference to compare all MLB players. Teams play 2 series a week, almost always playing 6 games in those 7 days – sometimes 7 games, sometimes 5 – but on average 6 games a week. In the end,  every player on every team has ample opportunity to play and produce, giving us a fair sample AND a relative number of games in which to compare players. That all players don’t play every game plays into their “value” and reflected in their MOTY#s — if a guy isn’t good enough to start every day, that will be reflected in his MOTY# since his “production” will be less than an everyday player.

Of course, to make smart, calculated roster moves, you need timely insight.

Anything more than a week isn’t timely. And not much help. But anything less that a week can just as easily only reflect a 2-3 game “spike” and lead to rash managerial moves. And one-day samples just can’t be trusted — up one, down the next, up one, down two. That’s not a trend, that’s “schizophrenia.”

Seven days seem to be the “sweet spot” for several reasons.

So, again, we’ll provide weekly updates beginning Monday, April 10. We’re sure you’ll find it very interesting. And by the time you digest it … the Week 2 update will be out. And the “picture of things” will get clearer and clearer with each subsequent week.

Thanks for the great question. We’re looking for to the first week’s update as much as you are.

The Guys at MOTY