Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

Don’t Freak Out — One or Two Games Does Not a Season Make

April 10, 2006 — It’s more than likely you checked the MOTY Rankings for Week 1 before reading this and one thought immediately leapt to mind:

“What the …?!”

Yes, the unfiltered rankings are pitcher-heavy after the first week of the 2006 season. And right now, after just one, “official” at bat through 7 games, Seattle pinch-hitter Roberto Petagine is on pace for this 2006 stat line:

• 23 runs, 23 hr, 23 rbi, 1.000 avg., 23 bb, 0 K, 1.000 obp, 4.000 slg

The only way Petagine could be more perfect thus far would have been if the bases were loaded when he hit his game-one homer … in which case he’d be on pace for 92 rbi’s for the season.

Of course, Petagine – and the pitcher, top-heavy MOTY rankings – are typical, early-season anomalies generated by very small statistical samples … like 1 or 2 games, or a single at bat. And nothing to get too excited about.

If you want to see rankings based on more realiable sampling (more games played, more innings pitched, more at bats) you have the power to do so — using the MOTY Scope™.

Just filter the rankings by “games played greater than 2 (or maybe 3)” and you’ll filter out all those players riding 1 or 2 game highs, like Claudio Vargas sp (ARI), who beat Milwaukee Sunday putting up this line:

• 1 win, 6 K, .50 whip, 0.00 era … giving up just 2 hits and 1 walk

Vargas came out of the gate with a stellar performance, as did Petagine. But both their stat lines are based on a single game (or swing), which, taken on their own, lead to telltale sportscaster comments like: “You know, Jack, at this rate, he’s on pace to hit 324 homers this season … <chuckle, chuckle> ….”

While statistically accurate if a guy hits 2 hr on Opening Day, we all recognized that no batter will hit 324 hr. And that Petagine won’t hit 1.000 over the course of … next week. Equally, no one expects Joe Blanton to post a 0.00 era after 3 games much less 30+ starts. Or that Jeremy Bonderman will post an infinitely high K/bb ratio (8 K/0 bb).

Clearly, we have to take very small samples of stats with a grain of salt. Especially with pitchers and the tendency for their MOTY#s to be inflated early in the season — when they only account for a few games, a few innings pitched.

Inflated? Yes. Due to “zero ratios” and a statistical surrogate the MOTY formulae have to employ called the “Artificial 1” to address those early-season, zero ratios.

By ratios we’re referring to baseball stats like era, whip, K/bb, bb/K and batting average — all generated by equations using either multiplication or division (hence “ratios”), and none that can actually be calculated if a player has produced a “zero” stat required by the equation, like 0 earned runs. Recall the equation for determining era:

• (earned runs/innings pitched)*9

True, until a pitcher gives up an earned run he has a 0.00 era, but actually he doesn’t just have a “zero era,” he has an “incalculable era.” Either way you look at it, the pitcher has been really good so far.

But to manage your fantasy team, “really good” isn’t insightful enough. Especially when comparing two or more pitchers, all with “really good, 0.00 era’s.” You need to be able to distinguish which 0.00 era is more valuable.

Of course, you don’t have time to wait for a player to put up a stat to be able to tell how valuable he is. You need to know NOW. You need as close an approximation to what his ratio stats will be as soon as he records a calculable statistic so that you can compare him to other players and make managerial decisions based on those comparisons.

Enter the “Artificial 1.”

In order to determine, for example, which pitcher with an actual 0.00 era is more valuable, MOTY replaces the player’s “0” earned runs with a “1” which then allows us to compute an era that can be used for comparison’s sake.

Okay, so why “1,” right? Well, 1 isn’t just the loneliest number. In instances of multiplication and division, it’s also the “perfect” number. It allows us to generate actual statistics (other than the empty set or infinity) without altering the value of any other statistics … any number multiplied or divided by 1 equals itself, thus all other factors remain relative.

Also, and most importantly, if a pitcher gives up just 1 earned run without any of his other stats changing – i.e. if he gives up a homer to the very next batter he faces (and thus not record another inning pitched … 0 outs = 0 ip) – his era WILL BE EXACTLY what the “Artificial 1” formula generated. So, while it is an approximation, the ratio is 1 earned run away from being the actual era. (Likewise with walks and K/bb or bb/K ratios, innings pitched with era and whip, ab with avg, etc.)

How ‘bout an example. Through April 9, Joe Blanton, Mark Hendrickson, Sergio Mitre and Justin Verlander have all posted 0.00 era’s (giving up 0 earned runs). They’re all off to tremendous, one-game starts to the season. But who’s more valuable, era-wise, after Week 1?

Replacing each pitcher’s 0 earned runs with an “Artificial 1,” we find that Mark Hendrickson and his approximate 1.00 era is the most valuable — because he’s pitched more innings.

Of course, the likelihood that these or any other starters will wind up with a sub 2.00 era is virtually unthinkable, meaning their current values are inflated. Equally the same is true with infinitely high K/bb ratios (due to 0 bb to date) or infinitely high whip (resulting from 0 ip due to 0 outs recorded … rare, but it happens). And when a pitcher enjoys more than one very low ratio stat, typical of very small stat samples early in the season, his MOTY# can be inflated even more so.

Though the phenomenon tends to be very short-lived — it only takes an earned run here, a walk there, or a single 0-for-4 game for inflated MOTY#s to right themselves.

As players, especially pitchers, get more playing time and rack up more numbers, their MOTY#s will reflect actual, calculable stats and not approximations based on the “Artificial 1.” And their MOTY#s come back to down to earth.

Also, while it’s not as common, batters can actually enjoy “inflated” MOTY#s as well.

For example, Chris Shelton is not going to hit .583, slug 1.458 and maintain a 1:4.8 hr-to-ab rate (Bond’s career rate is 1 hr every 12.9 ab, Ruth’s was every 11.8 ab and Aaron’s was 16.4 ab) Shelton’s 25.40 MOTY# for Week 1 will almost certainly go down before it goes up — but he sure is white hot his first 6 games.

Likewise with Roberto Petagine, who, should he make an out in his next ab, will see his MOTY# drop by more than 10 pts. So, while his single ab in Week 1 was a very productive one, don’t get too excited about it.

Still, that’s not to say early-season, inflated MOTY#s should be disregarded. Keep in mind, exceptionally valuable stats result in inflated MOTY#s. Guys enjoying these values are earning them, and deserve to show up on your radar.

Which is exactly how the weekly MOTY rankings work — they highlight players deserving your attention.

And while you can examine the rankings anyway you like, the most insightful way to do so early in the season – with such small statistical samples – tends to be by position. Doing so will instantly tell you who’s hot and who’s not by roster slot.

Or again, for combined batter/pitcher rankings, simply apply a “games played” MOTY Scope filter to leave out guys who were just having “a really good day.”

One other Week 1 note: Some players may not show up yet by the positions you expect … most notably closers. Reason being, while guys like Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman are indeed their teams’ closers, they’ve yet to register a “save opportunity,” a technicality which the MOTY System uses to qualify pitchers as closers, ciw or middle relievers (mr). Until a player actually is in position to close a game, he’s technically not a closer. In fact, some entire pitching staffs haven’t recored a single save opp, so technically the team doesn’t have a closer yet either.