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MOTY Talk

2006 National League “All Snubs”

July 13, 2006 — Like the American League squad, the 2006 National League All-Star team is chock full of incredible players. In fact, based on MOTY#s, the NL fans, players and managers did a better job of naming the most deserving players to their team.

Still, a couple of guys who should be in Steel Town for the big exhibition … er, game … weren‘t — for the same reasons the AL Snubs were, well, snubbed:

  • The starting lineups are determined by the fans’ vote, and let's be honest, while a majority of the players who the fans pick are deserving, there are always some who get the nod based on reputation. It's a popularity contest.
  • Players on large market teams (i.e. New York, Chicago) enjoy the obvious advantage of having more fans stuffing the ballot box for them. Small market players … “Sorry, what was your name again? … Thanks for playing. Don't call us, we'll call you.”
  • The MLB “every team must be represented” mandate to help ensure small market teams have a representative. While we understand the rationale, epsecially from a marketing stand point, there's always a more deserving player left off the team so that teams like the Royals, Rays and Bucs can have a representative.

Admittedly, MOTY#s don't take a player’s defense into account, so that does call for something of a disclaimer, most especially for hitters. Pitchers, not as much, but hitters, yes, defense needs to be given its due. Then again, Alfonso Soriano’s (WAS) 2006 election by the fans makes him a five-time All-Star despite his historical defensive liabilities, notably at 2b. So, go figure.

With that, this MOTY Talk highlights the players who really should have made the All-Star team, but didn’t. (Keep in mind, stats are through Sunday July 2, the end of Week 13, — the deadline for the fans' vote.)

National League “All Snubs”

These guys weren’t in Pittsburgh Tuesday night. They came up short in the ballot box. But, as we mentioned earlier, the National League vote was much more in line with how the MOTY System evaluated player value through Week 13. So, there are fewer questions and debates than in the AL.

YTD stats through July 2, 2006
Batter MOTY#  
YTD MTD LW r hr rbi sb avg ops
Hall, Bill MIL ss* 23.61 6.49 0.96 47 16 39 3 0.263 0.871
Rollins, Jimmy PHI ss 22.80 10.42 3.60 61 9 31 18 0.263 0.755
Lopez, Felipe CIN ss 22.62 7.31 3.46 53 9 30 22 0.273 0.767
Ramirez, Hanley FLA ss 20.89 0.60 2.68 60 4 21 23 0.272 0.739
Ross, David CIN c 20.73 9.38 2.35 19 12 28 0 0.318 1.104
Estrada, Johnny ARI c 19.64 5.12 1.97 27 6 44 0 0.317 0.805
Barrett, Michael CHC c 19.09 5.26 1.80 29 9 31 0 0.313 0.885

Bill Hall qualifies at 2b, ss and 3b in many fantasy leagues. He's joined the ranks of the uber-utility players with guys like Chone Figgins and Ryan Freel. Despite a not-so-pretty 0.263 avg, Hall has jacked 16 hr — more than All-Stars Edgar Renteria, Freddy Sanchez, Dan Uggla, Miguel Cabrera (!), Scott Rolen (!), Jose Reyes and David Eckstein. Not only has he hit more bombs than guys at “his positions,” he's bested Paul Lo Duca, Brian McCann and Matt Holliday through July 2nd. And equaled 2b starter Chase Utley.

Bill Hall. He got robbed.

Frankly, so did one of this trio — Rollins, Lopez and Hanley — all of whom would have been better replacement picks than David Eckstein. Sure, all three have suffered some pretty long slumps in the first half. But, excluding avg. (and OPS for Ramirez), they all have better offensive numbers than the Ecks-factor — across the board. And by MOTY#, the measure of their overall offensive value, ALL beat Eckstein by 5.00+ points.

Okay, so defense played a major factor, right? Eckstein has a 0.987 fielding %, Rollins - 0.985%, Hanley - 0.969%, Lopez - 0.959%. (Renteria - 0.977%). Compared to Rollins, denfense is a non-factor. Hanley, sure. And Lopez we can see slipping off the board. But really, Rollins (especially) or the rookie Marlin should've gotten the nod.

As for the catcher selections, Lo Duca/McCann making the team really highlights how very thin the position is in the NL, fantasy-wise. Clearly, Lo Duca rode the wave of huge NYC/Mets voting numbers. Frankly, McCann on the reserve list makes sense. Guy can hit, as his stats show. But first-half production, and not fan sentiment, suggest that either David Ross, Johhny Estrada or Michael Barrett should've made the roster.

As for Ross — third on the Reds depth chart for catcher — he’s hit more homers than Lo Duca and McCann COMBINED, with half the at bats. And that's probably the reason he didn't get even mild consideration. He's not an every-day player, much less a household name.

But Michael Barrett is, especially in Chicago. Could one punch really keep a guy off the team? Guess so.

Pitcher    
YTD MTD LW w sv K whip era K/bb
Harang, Aaron CIN sp 35.95 7.54 4.66 9 0 109 1.26 3.45 3.89
Johnson, Josh FLA sp 26.58 6.50 0.05 7 0 69 1.26 2.34 1.86
Wagner, Billy NYM cl 24.69 3.12 1.74 3 15 48 1.12 2.39 2.82
Young, Chris SD sp 30.52 5.82 0.85 7 0 95 1.09 3.13 2.50

Wow. Looking over the Final Man Vote results, we thought Chris Young didn't get any love. Because … well … he didn’t. But realizing that Aaron Harang didn't get an invite — that's quite the snub, despite only having a 64% winning percentage. Still, he does pitch half his games in homer-friendly G.A.B.P.

Billy Wagner is a big head scratch, too. Obviously, Turnbow made the team because someone from Milwaukee had to … oh, wait, Carlos Lee did. And Capuano got in the backdoor. And Bill Hall should have. Hmmm. Wagner does only have 15 saves and 2.82 K/bb. But he also has a better save percentage than Turnbow, 82% to 79%. Plus a better winning percentage (75%) than all the other relievers on the All-Star team except Trevor Hoffman.

Maybe, the players, managers and MLB thought 6 Mets were enough.

Starting Lineup

Jose Reyes, who's having a great 2006 season, had to pull out of the starting lineup after getting spiked last Friday. Edgar Renteria starts in his place, while David Eckstein takes Renteria’s slot on the reserve list — a selection that raises the question of whether there was a more deserving shortstop for the gig. There wasn't one … there were four. Though, don't take that as a slight against the “Ecks-factor,” the little shortstop who can. He just isn’t the best replacement option this year.

Phil Garner named Dodger hurler, Brad Penny, the NL starter.

YTD stats through July 2, 2006
Batter MOTY#  
YTD MTD LW r hr rbi sb avg ops
Lo Duca, Paul NYM c 14.07 4.02 1.85 36 3 25 3 0.288 0.722
Pujols, Albert STL 1b 58.82 5.91 3.28 58 27 72 2 0.320 1.156
Utley, Chase PHI 2b 36.07 6.65 2.33 66 16 49 8 0.300 0.884
Wright, David NYM 3b 45.08 16.50 2.67 51 18 66 11 0.324 0.324
Renteria, Edgar ATL ss 23.24 4.63 2.18 46 8 32 9 0.304 0.818
Beltran, Carlos NYM of 47.80 24.73 6.39 60 24 64 12 0.293 1.039
Bay, Jason PIT of 34.79 2.92 1.46 52 20 57 6 0.281 0.932
Soriano, Alfonso WAS of* 32.01 2.97 2.87 56 24 51 18 0.263 0.856
Pitcher    
YTD MTD LW w sv K whip era bb/K
Glavine, Tom NYM sp 49.05 6.86 0.02 11 0 75 1.24 3.34 2.27
Webb, Brandon ARI sp 47.36 17.01 0.01 9 0 97 1.13 2.72 4.85
Penny, Brad LAD sp 45.58 7.00 5.48 9 0 76 1.20 2.94 2.92
Arroyo, Bronson CIN sp 42.88 0.06 0.08 9 0 89 1.12 2.58 3.42
Capuano, Chris MIL sp 39.11 12.97 1.01 9 0 106 1.22 3.45 4.24
Martinez, Pedro NYM sp 37.14 16.59 6.85 7 0 111 1.00 3.45 3.96
Schmidt, Jason SF sp 34.31 0.15 1.33 6 0 99 1.09 2.73 2.54
Carpenter, Chris STL sp 30.51 0.26 1.28 6 0 88 1.21 2.85 3.38
Oswalt, Roy HOU sp 26.37 1.58 3.11 6 0 74 1.25 3.27 3.36
Zambrano, Carlos CHC sp 28.31 13.75 1.04 7 0 118 1.26 3.33 1.82
Hoffman, Trevor SD cl 43.67 5.20 3.60 0 20 24 0.97 1.16 4.80
Gordon, Tom PHI cl 29.89 1.69 1.15 2 21 41 1.06 2.12 3.73
Fuentes, Brian COL cl 27.96 3.60 3.38 2 15 45 0.96 2.16 3.46
Turnbow, Derrick MIL cl 21.73 8.26 2.02 4 23 45 1.32 4.04 2.37

Reserves

This is a very stout reserve roster. Though you gotta think Ross, Estrada or Barrett should have made the list … if not the starting lineup. And we’ve already looked at the shortstop situation. Fortunately, Nomar appears for rightly winning the Final Man Vote.

Roy Oswalt and Chris Capuano were also named as replacements for Pedro Martinez (injured) and Tom Glavine, who pitched Sunday. Capuano most deservedly so, as he owns a better YTD MOTY# than Pedro, Schmidt, Carpenter, Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano.

YTD stats through July 2, 2006
Batter MOTY# Week 13
YTD MTD LW r hr rbi sb avg ops
McCann, Brian ATL c 17.32 2.11 0.60 23 5 23 2 0.354 0.923
Berkman, Lance HOU 1b* 43.77 18.96 2.59 43 22 71 1 0.319 1.009
Howard, Ryan PHI 1b 38.05 11.20 0.75 43 28 69 0 0.284 0.958
Sanchez, Freddy PIT 3b* 32.37 14.14 5.88 46 5 45 1 0.363 0.928
Uggla, Dan FLA 2b 29.68 10.26 0.39 51 13 44 4 0.307 0.874
Cabrera, Miguel FLA 3b 45.30 7.28 4.17 60 13 55 7 0.344 1.013
Rolen, Scott STL 3b 39.80 17.36 5.80 53 12 53 4 0.340 0.992
Reyes, Jose NYM ss 34.13 17.84 1.28 70 8 39 34 0.291 0.825
Eckstein, David STL ss 15.72 2.66 0.02 46 1 18 5 0.316 0.743
Holliday, Matt COL of 44.15 12.90 0.34 57 15 55 4 0.345 0.992
Lee, Carlos MIL of 39.89 14.40 5.77 53 25 66 11 0.284 0.917
Jones, Andruw ATL of 31.02 4.57 1.37 47 18 66 3 0.275 0.847

Final Man Candidates

Again, the NL gets it right. Nomar wins the nod as the Final Man, likely on his way to the NL Comeback Player of the Year award. And, again, Capuano made the roster as a replacement, so the two most-deserving guys made it to PNC Park.

YTD stats through July 2, 2006
Batter MOTY# Week 13
YTD MTD LW r hr rbi sb avg ops
Garciaparra, Nomar LAD 1b* 39.42 7.97 2.12 48 10 47 3 0.361 1.011
Abreu, Bobby PHI of 34.00 7.13 1.33 52 8 57 15 0.290 0.917
Pitcher    
YTD MTD LW w sv K whip era bb/K
Capuano, Chris MIL sp 39.11 12.97 1.01 9 0 106 1.22 3.45 4.24
Young, Chris SD sp 30.52 5.82 0.85 7 0 95 1.09 3.13 2.50
Wagner, Billy NYM cl 24.60 3.06 1.70 3 15 48 1.12 2.39 2.82

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