Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

MOTY Talk

Second Half Moves — A Run at the Pennant

July 20, 2006 — So, you had a good draft. Done a good job managing your team so far. And avoided the injury bug.

Basically, you're in the hunt for your league championship. Maybe atop the standings. Maybe within striking distance. Or maybe in the middle of the pack, but with some guys prime for huge second-half performances.

Obviously, you know which categories you need to improve in and which you hold comfortable points leads in … you're in a position to give up something (like wins or sb's) for something you need.

Problem is, while you and, say, half your league, have a shot at the championship, the other half has slipped out of contention, and their owners gone off the radar. Frustrating when you find the perfect trade to help both teams, but the other guy hasn't been active since mid-June. But whattaya gonna do?

Get creative, that's what.

Sure, you can scour the wire for the guys quietly heating up … and they're out there, just use the MOTY Scope™. But putting all your eggs in that basket ain't going to get it done.

Productive trades are the way to go. And luckily, this time of the season, other teams with a shot at making a move tend to pull the trigger on deals they wouldn't even consider earlier in the year. The smoke on the battlefield has cleared, people can see the finish the line and how they can get there. Of course, you gotta be daring — cajones grandes — but you gotta be smart, too.

Let's say you sit pretty in "wins" and "K's" with Johan, Halladay, Webb and Francisco Liriano on your staff. But you need homers and rbi's in a bad way ... and the guy with Big Papi, Carlos Beltran and/or ARod desperately needs an ace to make hay in the pitching categories.

Make him an offer he can't refuse … with an ace up your sleeve. (Rather, a serviceable replacement.)

Send him a Johan-for-David Ortiz deal, sweetening the pot by offering up a “decent” corner infielder replacement for Ortiz … a Prince Fielder/Aramis Ramirez/Pedro Feliz type. So, using the MOTY Trade Evaluator, you'd have a 2-for-1 deal that would look like this (stats through Week 15):

I Get: -20.25 MOTY#, +16.11 Avg. MOTY# per Player
Batter MOTY# r hr rbi sb avg ops
Pitcher w sv K whip era win%
Oritz, David BOS 1b 52.47 68 32 90 0 0.277 0.998
Batter Total 52.47 +26 +16 +35 -1 +0.014 +0.190
Pitcher Total -10 0 -145 -0.99 -2.93 -67%
Trade Total 52.47
Avg. MOTY# per Player 52.47
I Give: +20.25 MOTY#, -16.11 Avg. MOTY# per Player
Batter MOTY# r hr rbi sb avg ops
Pitcher w sv K whip era win%
Santana, Johan MIN sp 48.74 10 0 145 0.99 2.93 67%
Ramirez, Aramis CHC 3b 23.98 42 16 55 1 0.263 0.807
Batter Total 23.98 -26 -16 -35 +1 -0.014 -0.190
Pitcher Total 48.74 +10 0 +145 +0.99 +2.93 +67%
Trade Total 72.72
Avg. MOTY# per Player 36.36

(Abbreviated version of what Trade Evaluator results look like — you actually get 14 additional secondary stats: 7 for batters, 7 for pitchers. Plus you get the trade results based on "2006 Projections," too.)

At first blush, looks like you might be giving away the farm. Or at least the barn and silo. But this is where you play that “ace.”

You’ve got a replacement for Johan in mind. One of a few guys you’ve found on the wire using the MOTY Scope — the “Month-to-Date” filter being your friend and “lens” of choice. Obviously, this guy’s not “replacing Johan.” No one really does that. But, essentially, the rest of your rotation moves up a spot, Halladay or Webb becoming your “virtual #1,” and the new guy filling the vacated spot in your rotation.

Using the advanced filter criteria — "era less than 3.50," "whip less than 1.3" and "wins greater than 2" — check these pitchers who fit the bill over the last month:

MTD stats, Weeks 12 - 15:
Pitcher    
YTD MTD LW w sv K whip era bb/K
Sele, Aaron LAD sp 34.30 15.07 3 0 16 1.25 2.45 4.00
Fogg, Josh COL sp 20.22 13.41 0.55 3 0 10 1.04 2.25 2.50
Padilla, Vicente TEX sp 28.65 8.37 3.61 3 0 26 1.06 3.27 3.25

Guarantee two, if not all three, of these guys are available in your league. So make the deal, get the power bat in Ortiz and fill Santana's vacancy with … Sele. In essence, your trade really looks like this:

I Get: +14.04 MOTY#, +7.02 Avg. MOTY# per Player
Batter MOTY# r hr rbi sb avg ops
Pitcher w sv K whip era win%
Oritz, David BOS 1b 52.47 68 32 90 0 0.277 0.998
Sele, Aaron LAD sp 34.30 6 0 38 1.29 2.91 75%
Batter Total 52.47 +26 +16 +35 -1 +0.014 +0.190
Pitcher Total 34.30 -4 0 -107 +0.31 -0.03 +8%
Trade Total 86.77
Avg. MOTY# per Player 43.38
I Give: -14.04 MOTY#, -7.02 Avg. MOTY# per Player
Batter MOTY# r hr rbi sb avg ops
Pitcher w sv K whip era win%
Santana, Johan MIN sp 48.74 10 0 145 0.99 2.93 67%
Ramirez, Aramis CHC 3b 23.98 42 16 55 1 0.263 0.807
Batter Total 23.98 -26 -16 -35 +1 -0.014 -0.190
Pitcher Total 48.74 +4 0 +107 -0.31 +0.03 -8%
Trade Total 72.72
Avg. MOTY# per Player 36.36

Well, that's altogether different isn’t it? Swings things back to your favor. Though, some managers don’t like 2-for-1 deals, wanting to move a player to make room for the extra guy their getting. Fine. Take ANYONE off the other guy’s hands. His worse player. Doesn't matter. Then just dump that chump for … Sele/Padilla/Fogg.

Hey, we said creative right? You just picked up a power hitter who's going to be in a heated down-to-the-wire pennant race and a solid pitcher to replace a staff ace, so you don't take too hard a hit in the pitching categories.

Think outside the box. And win yourself a championship.