Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

Week 17: Hot and Not — The Ballparks

August 4, 2006 — In this Hot and Not — with 65% of the season in the books — we’re going to take a different bent than in week’s past, focusing on ballparks instead of ball players. A little extra insight to help you manage your rosters through this critical time of the season. Are the parks you consider “hitter's parks” really hitter-friendly confines in 2006? We think you’ll find the results, MOTY-style, very interesting.

Okay, okay, so we'll also do two quickie lists, combining the leagues, for consolidated MLB versions of the Hot and Not lists. THEN take a look at the ballparks.

Honestly, though, we hope that by now you’ve grasped the ease and effectiveness of the MOTY Scope™ and have been generating your own crib sheets every Monday. Hey, there’s no "man behind the curtain" here — just us working the MOTY Scope to find the guys you want … and don’t want.

Frankly, it's easy as pie. In the Weekly MOTY Rankings, click the “Last Week” tab, choose AL or NL, then sort by position for the “Hot” players. For the “Not” players, just click the MOTY# header, reversing the order worst-to-first and you quickly see who needs benching, dumping or trading. Then, for quick reference later in the week, just save each list as a My Roster watch list. 'Cause, hey, you have to make roster moves all week long, right?

With that, the Week 17 Hot and Not lists:

MLB — Hot

Other guys you might want to check out based on Week 17 hot streaks: Howie Kendrick (LAA), A.J. Pierzynski (CWS), Elizardo Ramirez (CIN), Luke Scott (HOU), Kelvim Escobar (LAA), Jason Bartlett (MIN), Luis Gonzalez (ARI), Rich Aurilia (CIN), Aaron Rowand (PHI), Gerald Laird (TEX), Eric Hinske (TOR), Ben Broussard (SEA), Joe Inglett (CLE), Aaron Guiel (NYY), Marcus Giles (ATL) and Willy Aybar (ATL).

MLB — Not

Based on their Week 17 numbers, here are some other players you might want to bench or find another home for. At the very least, take a closer look at them: Armando Benitez (SF), Javier Vazquez (CWS), Dontrelle Willis (FLA), Akinori Otsuka (TEX), Curt Schilling (BOS), Barry Zito (OAK), Barry Bonds (SF), Tim Hudson (ATL), Miguel Cabrera (FLA), Nomar Garciaparra (LAD), Hanley Ramirez (FLA), Freddy Sanchez (PIT), Jorge Julio (ARI), Andy Pettitte (HOU), Carlos Guillen (DET) and Gary Matthews, Jr. (TEX).

MLB Ballpark Rankings

Coors Field, Ameriquest Field (formerly Ballpark at Arlington), Minute Maid Park, Citizens Bank Ballpark — everybody knows these are “hitter’s parks.” Or are they?

On the flip side, if you’re not sure whether to activate a pitcher or not, realizing that he’s scheduled to take the mound in Petco Park, R.F.K., Shea or Dodger Stadium often helps you decide to start him. But should it?

Truth is that the phrase “hitter’s park” is somewhat misleading because most people equate home run frequency with hitter-friendly, whether they realize it or not (which is to say, they're just regurgitating what other people, magazines and “experts” say). While home runs are a decent indicator, they’re only part of the picture.

Runs scored really is a greater measure, since scoring runs is the whole point of the game. And everything that leads to, or helps predict, more runs scored translates into greater offensive production.

Hmm, sounds a lot like a batter’s MOTY#. You know … if we had all the stats for the ballparks that we need to generate a batter’s MOTY# … we could — generate MOTY#s for each ballpark … then rank them.

Well, of course, we have all the stats we need. So, of course, that’s exactly what we did.

Listed below are all 30 MLB ballparks ranked by their overall hitting MOTY#s. Keep in mind, the stats and MOTY#s for each do not represent their home team’s offensive numbers — they’re the ballpark’s production, which includes the home club’s and the visiting team’s stats combined.

This should open your eyes — and mind — as to who to start and who to bench based on game location.

Before you start pouring through the list, we should point out a few things. First, the stats are through Week 17 (Sunday, July 30). Next, the ballparks are ranked by an “Adjusted MOTY#.” Reason being, not every team has played the same number of home games, so obviously some parks have put up more offensive numbers because they’ve hosted more games. (The average number of home games per ballpark through July 30 was 52.13, which was used to create the relative factor leading to the “Adjusted MOTY#” … essentially what each park's overall offensive value would be had they all “played” exactly the same number of games.)

For example, only 111 hr have been hit in Tropicana Field (TB), but only 48 games have been played there so far. Whereas Miller Park (MIL) has allowed 125 hr through 55 games. Could 14 more homers be hit in Tampa in 7 additional games? That’d be an average of 2 per game. Not out of the realm of possibility.

Anyway, you get both the Actual MOTY# and Adjusted MOTY# for each ballpark. Plus, the stats for the 5x5 scoring categories, as well as OPS — again, totals that combine both home and visiting team production. Also notice that we've included the “average” ballpark for an interesting point of reference, the MOTY# being generated by the average of all the offensive stats required by the MOTY# algorithms.

Obviously, there are some very interesting results here.

First, while conventional wisdom suggests we’d find Camden Yards (BAL), G.A.B.P. (CIN) and Citizens Bank Park (PHI) ranking very high as offensive parks, some of the “usual suspects” are nowhere near “hitter park” status. Namely, Coors Field (COL), Minute Maid Park (the bandbox in Houston) and, to a degree, Ameriquest Field (TEX).

Interestingly, “homer-friendly” Ameriquest has given up only 123 bombs (11th overall), while Turner Field (ATL), Yankee Stadium and Miller Park (MIL) have given up more. And Petco Park (SD), regarded as THE pitcher’s park, is only 1 hr behind the Texas park at 122. Of course, the Rangers have played 56 home games so far, so Ameriquest’s handicapped ranking is due in part to the adjustment factor, but it still only ranks #8 by actual MOTY#. Hardly, the top AL hitter’s park we all assumed it to be.

As for Minute Maid, it's given up a good number of hr and runs, but very few stolen bases and a fairly low .262 average and .764 OPS. Looks like an “all or nothing” scenario — either guys hit homers or nothing. Which, refocusing on average and OPS, suggests strong pitching, despite Brad Lidge’s and Andy Pettitte’s surprisingly tough seasons (granted, the Astro’s staff only accounts for 50% of the pitching in Minute Maid Park).

Coors is the stunner. Ranking #23 by Adjusted MOTY# and #24 by Actual MOTY#, the Rockies home field is in the bottom third tier of offensive parks.

Coors Field is a “pitcher’s park!”

Is it the humidor? Did they finally learn how to throw breaking balls in the thin air? Or could Todd Helton's mysterious disappearing power act single-handedly be submarining the park’s numbers? Who knows what’s going on with Helton, but he’s only hit 11 hr through Week 17 (projected to hit 28), hitting .045 points less than expected, average-wise, and 0.165 points under his projected OPS. And last year’s second-half explosion has yet to materialize in 2006.

As for other ballparks standing out in the list, Kauffman Stadium (KC) ranks so high because, frankly, the Royals pitching — and defense — are awful. R.F.K. (WAS), supposedly a pitcher’s park, ranks mid-pack offensively, though above average. You think maybe that guy the Nationals didn't trade might have something to do with that? Yeah, we do too.

One historically-held pitcher’s park that’s surprisingly high on the list is Dodger Stadium. While there have been only 108 hr hit in L.A. through 55 games, the Dodgers and their opponents have been scoring A LOT of runs, hitting for a high, .280 batting average and a relatively high .785 OPS. Also, Dodger Stadium leads the majors in stolen bases at 98. Gotta say, it’s not the safe haven for mediocre pitchers it used to be.

Though they rank pretty low offensively (which suggests they're pitcher-friendly), not Petco Park (SD), Safeco Field (SEA) nor Dolphin Stadium (FLA) ranked as the worst offensive ballpark. The last three on the list are #28 Comerica (DET), #29 Angel Stadium (LAA) and #30 McAfee Coliseum (OAK). Obviously, Detroit, with the best record in baseball, is proving once again that pitching wins. While the Angels, until recently, were proving that you still have to hit the ball — occasionally — to win no matter how good your young pitching is.

As for the stadium in Oakland ranking dead last, well, it’s not that the A’s aren’t hitting at home. They’re not hitting anywhere. While their opponents are only fairing slightly better (though the A’s pitching has been far from light’s out). And yet, Oakland is in first place in the AL West.

Don’t you just love this game?!