Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

AL Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year

December 5, 2005 — The winners of the 2005 MLB Comeback Player of the Year Awards, Presented by Viagra weren’t too surprising — Jason Giambi in the AL, Ken Griffey, Jr. in the NL.

The winners of the 2005 Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year Awards – presented by MOTY – should definitely open some eyes.

In this MOTY Talk edition, we’ll unveil our ’05 Fantasy Comeback Player for the American League. (Be sure to check out the National League version as well.) But first, we need to set the stage — what defines a “comeback player?” Hmmmm. Well, MLB says, “The award will recognize the players who have re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season.” Fair enough. Giambi certainly did that. But how do you qualify “re-emerging” on the fantasy baseball field?

Actually, there are a couple of pretty straightforward ways. One, compare a player’s actual MOTY# to his projected MOTY#. Dramatically outperforming his projection earns him consideration (keep in mind, MOTY projections take into account factors like returning from injury, age, performance trends, etc.). Two, compare a player’s 2005 MOTY# to his 2004 MOTY#. Again, a huge jump indicates a Comeback performance.

Ah, but, there is one caveat. To be considered a Comeback nominee, the player has to have previously put up valuable fantasy numbers. A guy who blows away his projected MOTY# but has never put up big numbers in the past isn’t a “comeback” player — he’s a “breakout” player (can you say, “Jon Garland?”). And that’s a different MOTY Talk entry all together. Stay tuned.

Okay, so, starting with the MLB’s official nominees – which fans got to vote for online – let’s draft a list of AL fantasy Comeback potentials, including their actual ’05 MOTY#s , projected ’05 MOTY#s, their % of ’05 projections, plus their actual ’04 MOTY#s and their % of ’05 to ’04 MOTY#s:

Some big names here, some guys who had really nice fantasy seasons. But, based on % of ’05 projections, the MOTY System tells us to add some other players to the list:

Scott Elarton?

Yes, sir — based on how much better he performed than he was projected to. Remember, “… the players who have re-emerged on the (fantasy) baseball field during a given season.” Call us crazy, but any definition of “re-emergence” includes an 830% improvement. Here’s how the whole pool ranks when sorted by % of ’05 projections:

Shakes things up a bit, no? And, look who’s in the middle of the pack — Mr. Giambi. Which basically tells you that the MOTY projections expected him to do better than MLB fans did. Who knew?

Now then, we have a list of 11 Comeback candidates. Let’s start narrowing the field beginning with a couple of easy deletions — Barry Zito didn’t even hit his projected MOTY#. Gone. (What was MLB thinking?).

Next, while Jose Contreras did beat his projected MOTY# by 271% and his ’04 MOTY# by 171%, he’s only played three seasons in the majors. Sure, a player can rebound from a down second year, but he has to “rebound” to something, namely a career or trend of notable production. Here are Contreras’ historical MOTY#s: 31.39 (’03), 27.40 (’04), 46.92 (’05). 2005 wasn’t a comeback year for Jose, it was a breakout year. Even for a guy at age … well … however old he is. Sorry. Gone.

Kenny Rogers’ and Cliff Politte’s bids are fairly easy to dismiss as well. Both put up very nice fantasy numbers in 2005 and could’ve helped most any fantasy team. But Rogers didn’t even match his ’04 MOTY# — a 12% drop is not a comeback, it’s a 12% drop. Gone. As for Politte – 7 wins (vs. 1 loss), 2.00 era and .94 whip in 67.667 innings – yeah, I’ll make room for a middle reliever with those numbers on my team. Just not on my Comeback list. As a Seinfeld fan, allow me to play the role of the Comeback Player Award Nazi — Sorry, Cliff: “No trophy for you!”

At this point, things get tighter, every player on the list has a decent case to win the fantasy Comeback award. At the end of the blog though, only one guy will take the honors.

Sooooo, going back to % of ’05 projections, several guys who had great seasons fall short of consideration: Richie Sexson (118%) and Roy Halladay (126%).

Reason being, even though they beat their projections, MOTY figured Sexson and Halladay to bounce back and ranked them fairly high in the ’05 MOTY preseason rankings — Sexson projected as the #10 1b (MLB)/#5 (AL); Halladay projected as the #9 sp (MLB)/#5 (AL). Sexson actually finished 7th/4th. Halladay only started 19 games, essentially less than two-thirds of the season, but still finished ranked 6th/4th respectively. Possibly an argument for Roy’s “Comeback,” but he could have tanked the last third of the season, too. We’ll never know. And dems da breaks.

Of Wickman and Gibbons, one stays, one goes. MOTY projected Wickman as the #17 cl (MLB)/#10 (AL) — he finished 10th/4th. Gibbons projected as the #77 of (MLB)/#38 (AL), finishing 34th/16th. The 10th/4th ranking at a very thin position is more valuable than the 34th/16th ranking at a very deep outfield position. Also, as the following chart shows, Wickman’s 2005 campaign – including a career high 45 saves – was his second best in a 14-year career (just two years after a completely lost 2003) and close to twice his career MOTY# average:

Gibbons MOTY#s for his five-year career – 14.19 (’01), 32.51 (’02), 43.98 (’03), 15.60 (’04), 40.84 (’05) – certainly indicate Comeback. But compared to Wickman, Gibbon’s ’04 season is a hip-flexor-induced hiccup on a natural upward trend, much like Morgan Ensberg in the NL.

So, Bob’s in, Jay’s out. Leaving us the following list of nominees, plus two additional categories for more perspective — career best MOTY# and % of ’05 to career best MOTY#:

How’s that for interesting? Giambi ranks 3rd and the out-of-nowhere Elarton, while 4th, still posted a respectable 43%. Be honest now, when you first saw his name, did you remember Elarton’s 17-win season for Houston in 2000?

Let’s settle this once and for all, looking at the four finalist’s stat lines for 2004, 2005 proj. and 2005.

His 45 saves tied him with Frankie Rodriguez (39.01 MOTY#) for most saves in the AL, while only Chad Cordero (43.33) logged more in the NL with 47. Wickman tied K-Rod and Joe Nathan (51.59) for 2nd highest sv% in the AL, trailing only Mariano Rivera (58.22) at 91%.

Moyer tied for 7th most wins in the AL, more than Roy Halladay (62.02 MOTY#), Rich Harden (50.67) and Kevin Millwood (13.12). And posted the 9th highest win% in the AL, higher than Jon Garland (48.82), Freddy Garcia (38.52), Kenny Rogers (37.51)  and Barry Zito (17.91).

MLB’s Comeback Player of the Year tied Jason Bay (77.34 MOTY#), Pat Burrell (56.96), Vladimir Guerrero (75.09) and Carlos Lee (51.58) for 15th in homeruns (MLB), tying Vlad for 10th in the AL. Giambi’s ops ranked 20th and 9th in MLB and the AL respectively. He posted the 10th/6th best obp MLB/AL, with the 36th best slugging percentage in the majors (11th in the AL).

Elarton tied for 9th most wins in the AL, higher than Kevin Millwood (13.12 MOTY#), Jarrod Washburn (17.99), Brad Radke (14.73), Rich Harden (50.67) and Curt Schilling (16.01) — though Harden and Schilling suffered injury-shortened seasons.

The Results

In the end, Elarton, who was drafted in, let’s see … zero leagues, had a rather phenomenal Comeback — granted, on a much improved Cleveland team. Which makes his turnaround slightly less impressive than Moyer’s, who righted the ship on a disappointing 2005 Seattle team that only won six more games than in 2004 — the exact improvement Moyer achieved all by his lonesome.

Still, Moyer’s 13 wins – with a 4.28 era, 1.39 whip and only 102 K – aren’t going to help a fantasy team as much the 32 hr, 87 rbi, 74 runs and .271 avg Giambi put up. Which, as nice as they are from one player, fall short of the impact that 45 saves – by one closer – make over the course of a fantasy season.

For that reason, MOTY’s 2005 AL Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year is …

Bob Wickman.

Congrats to those who owned the Cleveland closer in 2005.