Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

Dominate Your 2008 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Part 1

February 28, 2008 — Welcome to MOTY for the 2008 fantasy baseball season. Now, If you used MOTY two years ago to prep for your draft, you may recognize a lot of this MOTY Talk from 2006’s “Dominate Your Draft” entry. And you’d be right. Frankly, this insight qualifies under the “If it ain’t broke, don't rewrite it” category — granted we update the 2008-specific nuggets.

Not to worry. Read on and you’ll see that's exactly what we did — most especially in Dominate Your 2008 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Part 2

“With the first pick (insert your name here) selects …”

Draft day is easily the most fun of the of the fantasy baseball season. And, frankly, the most critical. So don’t expect the same old “how to draft” litany here that you can read in any fantasy magazine. No, the MOTY System looks at the fantasy game and players from a totally different perspective. And the tools in the MOTY Draft War Room – MOTY’s 2008 player projections, ComboCats, Talent Tiers and Untouchables – use that perspective to give you the edge you need to make the smart picks and dominate your draft.

With that, here are some “Draft Thoughts” — things to remember and consider (in a 5x5 league) as you prepare for your draft:

• Every home run = 3 fantasy points (run, hr, rbi). Every stolen base = 1 fantasy point (stolen base). That’s not to say you should punt stolen bases. Far from it. sb’s are very valuable … just not as valuable as hr’s. (In 4x4, every home run = 2 pts. In SABR, ixnay on the omerunhay.)
• In the entire history of baseball, no player has ever stolen a base or scored a run without first getting on base. Translation: “Beware the low obp guys!”
• You’re not drafting your “final” team, you’re drafting the “foundation” of your team, a strong mix of players fitting your strategy, a solid core that will give you flexibility to maneuver in trade talks and free agency moves once the season starts.
• Injuries WILL happen (Carpenter, Crede, the Big Unit and Baldelli in ’07) and Studs WILL bust (Hafner, Manny, Schilling and Bonderman last year). Happens every season, it’ll happen this season. Draft with this in mind — no matter what strategy you take, try to have more than one solid guy eligible at each position, because predicting injuries is tricky at best.
• Like it or not, luck plays a major role throughout the fantasy season. There’s an adage that essentially says you make good fortune shine on you by being in the right place. In fantasy baseball, nothing puts you in the right place like the MOTY System. You’ll hear other managers say how lucky you are to draft all the right guys. It’ll be less luck and more MOTY than they’ll ever know.
• In ESPN and Yahoo! leagues, pay NO attention to post-draft league standings — more often than not, they’re based on last year’s final stats. Of course, if you really think Russ Springer will go 8-1 again, Vernon Wells will only hit .245 and Chris Carpenter will only pitch 6 innings in ’08, by all means, put credence in your post-draft, pre-season league standings … then panic, thinking you have to make dramatic changes to your roster and make stupid pre-season trades.
• “Drafting While Drinking” can be disastrous, unless everyone in the draft is DWD. Might be fun (if you’re of age). But probably gonna make for an ugggggly team — the next morning. And then you have to live with “her” for 162 games. Not pretty. And, come to think of it, in the end, not much fun either.
• Pay attention to other managers' draft picks. “Really? You think?” Hey, it’s easy to get caught up and not notice if someone is trying to corner a position or scoring category. If another manager is trying to corner, say saves, and you haven’t drafted any closers, or maybe only one at that point, consider going deep in a position you’re already strong at, like shortstop or 3b (which the “closer” team is also weak at), to set yourself up to make a deal with that other team after the draft for – you guessed it – a closer.
• After you rank guys for your draft, draw up some shortlists at each position, including “back up picks,” so that if someone takes the guy you really want just before you pull the trigger, you have one or two guys you can immediately fall back to. Trying to find a “replacement” pick can be very distracting and throw off the flow of your entire draft. (In more harsh terms, this is known as “panicking.”)
• EVERY SINGLE DRAFT IS DIFFERENT. Expect the unexpected. We’ve already seen a mock draft this year in which Brandon Phillips went #14 overall … ahead of Prince Fielder, Carl Crawford, Grady Sizemore, Mark Teixeira and ... Jake Peavy! Don't get us wrong, Phillips is a great pick at a thin position, especially after that 30/30 breakout season last year, but #14 overall? Ten picks before Vlad? Are you kidding?! Which leads us to …
• In a 10-team league, you only directly control your picks — or 10% of the draft. Similarly, in an 8-team league, only 12.5% of the draft. And a mere 8.25% of the draft in a 12-team league.

Ten percent of the draft. Hmmm. Not the sort of odds you want strolling into the OK Corral. But then again, in a 10-team league, every owner only controls 10% of the draft. Either way you look at it, what you’re left with is a compelling argument for preparation.

Dominate Your 2008 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Part 2