Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

2008 MOTY Subscriber Q&A #1

March 15, 2008 — Subscribers are always encouraged and free to submit questions, thoughts or anecdotes to MOTY Talk. Periodically, when we feel a subscriber’s email would be helpful to other fantasy baseball fans, we’ll post it and MOTY’s response for all to read. With that, we kick of the 2008 User Q&A’s with the following:

The “missing” category: Holds

I am in a nearly traditional 12 team MLB Universe 5 X 5 league. The exception is that Saves and Holds are added together rather than just Saves. How can MOTY compensate for this variation?

Thanks,

Ralph M.

Great question. In fact, one we’ve wrestled with ourselves. Unfortunately, the short answer probably isn’t the one you’re looking for — no, MOTY does not configure for holds. Sorry.

One reason being holds aren’t an official MLB stat. But more than that, the problem is there are actually varying definitions used by different stat services as to exactly what a hold is. Different enough that it makes generating reliable projections next to impossible — a hold by one definition isn’t necessarily one by another. Your league’s “hold” may not be a “hold” in another league. The inconsistencies are too problematic for dependable projections that everyone can use universally.

However, that doesn’t mean MOTY can’t help you out. Specifically, the MOTY Scope™, which gives you 3 separate advanced filters in the projections (and weekly rankings once the season starts).

Based on typical “hold” definitions, think about what kind of pitchers earn holds and consider MOTY Scope filter combinations that would “define” the best hold—type guys and make a short list of them you might consider for your draft.

For example, try this — because a hold isn’t a save, a win or a loss (usually … there are some definitions that allow a player to earn a hold even if he gets the loss, too; crazy, but true), and most “hold” definitions say the pitcher left the game without giving up the lead (re: usually not giving up runs), set the MOTY Scope filters to:

MOTY Scope settings:

Tabs:  Projections,  MLB (league)

Basic Filters:  All Pitchers (pos.),  All Teams and Saved Rosters (team)

Advanced Filter 1:  “gs less than 1”*

Advanced Filter 2:  “saves less than 5”**

Advanced Filter 3:  “era less than 3.00”***

* (eliminating all sp and guys who get spot starts). ** (to exclude closers/ciw without excluding the guys who get the occasional vulture save). *** (not giving up too many runs, or the lead, so tie score or loss equal a higher probability of a hold).

Okay, that took about 30 seconds. Now click “Apply Filter” and here’s your resulting shortlist…

You want more K’s, go with Broxton or Bell. Lower whip, Betancourt. Or make the criteria more strict or more relaxed, giving you fewer or more guys to consider. Totally up to you. Better yet, run a variety of filter combos to your liking and cherry pick the players you prefer and save them to a personal roster in the “Add Selected Players to: (“A New Roster”).” Once you get a roster of the pitchers you like, you can run filters on that specific list till the cows come home … though you’ll probably zero in on the exact ones you like quicker than that.

Ultimately, of course, that doesn’t tell you how many holds to expect. It is inexact to say the least. But it is a good way to find likely candidates … who also rack up other valuable stats like whip, era and K’s in 5x5 leagues.

And it’s a really great example of how powerful a friend the MOTY Scope can be for you.

Not only that, it highlights an important approach we take at Fantasy Baseball MOTY — We’re not here to jam a preferred strategy down your throat, “Take it or leave it!” We’re here to help you make whatever strategy you like work harder for you … and help you find the best fantasy baseball players who fit your strategy before someone else in your league does.

The Guys at MOTY

Albert Pujols and the surgery he hasn’t had

Curious why you have Albert Pujols so high on the list, since there has been a lot of talk of his injury of late and how that might affect his performance.

Matt P.

Thanks for the question, Matt. Obviously, everyone is watching Albert this Spring to figure out what the future holds for his elbow.

Clearly, by his (and Cardinals’ physicians) admission, he’ll ultimately have to have surgery on it. The dreaded “Tommy John” phrase entering the conversation … until he recovers from the procedure with, as often is the case, a stronger arm than before the injury occurred. According to reports, Pujols could’ve had arthroscopic surgery to clean up lesser issues than the ligament damage, but said, and we’re paraphrasing “What’s the point? If it blows, it blows. A minor procedure won’t repair the ligament.” And he’s going to play with the injury as he did last year.

Which tells us he knows what to expect and feels his opinion is the most qualified as to whether he can play with the injury, and contribute to his team, or not. Especially given the fact, he’s rehab’ed it over the off’season in preparation for ’08. That, and it’s been a nagging injury for him, to varying degrees, since 2003.

Still, most of that is speculation. What isn’t is his 2007 season — the worst statistical year of his career, including his rookie season. (But still very good numbers for most anyone else).

But Pujols is not most anyone else. He’s Pujols. And he’s played with dings and injuries before and still put up the 40+ homer seasons we had grown spoiled to expect.

As you’re aware, MOTY doesn’t project him to have as “un-Pujols” a year as he did last year. But we equally don’t project him to reach the 100+ MOTY#, 40+ hr, 120+ rbi level either (and if you use the toggle option on the projection rankings page, you’ll see that our 2005-07 projections were much higher than this year’s as well … though, those predictions and his final numbers were much closer than last year’s. Hey, NO ONE saw that coming.).

All that aside, here’s the short answer to your question — we see him rebounding from ’07, but not all the way to vintage Albert levels. And splitting the difference between the two still has him as highly-rated as he is.

Also, despite it’s just Spring Training, we’re encouraged by his numbers so far (through March 12): 7 runs, 4 hr, 6 rbi, .370 avg and 1.411 ops in 27 ab. By comparison, he did NOT have a good spring last year. Which makes this March even more encouraging.

Like Pujols said, “If it blows, it blows.” Until then, he’s the #1 first baseman in the Fantasy Baseball MOTY projections … but not by much.

In the end, if you’re still uneasy about him, let someone else take that perceived chance. There are plenty of other awesome first round choices — and other great 1b to take with your second or third pick.

The Guys at MOTY

Questions, thoughts, cool stories of how the MOTY System has helped your fantasy baseball team? Drop us an email. Your comments might show up here in a future MOTY Talk.