Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

Spring Training 2008: Hot and Not Players (AL)

March 26, 2008 — Allow us to immediately and emphatically qualify this MOTY Talk entry, right here and right now.

Yes, it’s Spring Training. And you know as well as we do that most pitchers are just building arm strength, trying out new pitches, not wanting to tip their stuff to the opposition. And veteran hitters are just getting their timing down, working their way into every day shape, avoiding any pre-season injuries and dings.

You gotta take Spring Training stats with a deer-lick sized grain of salt.

But some guys are fighting for rosters spots or starting positions. Especially young guys. And there are veteran players hell-bent on coming back from injuries and down years - with something to prove. So there are reasons not to avoid Grapefruit and Cactus League numbers as well.

One other note before getting to the good stuff — while the players listed below do appear at, or near the top (or bottom), of the MOTY rankings generated by this spring’s stats, there were other guys (mostly sent to minor camp already) who had a great (or terrible) March as well. For this Talk, we’re focusing on players who are more likely to impact your team or league — guys you’ve either already drafted, might want to draft or should take another look at — as a potential pick or someone to eyeball once the regular season starts (cough, cough … My Rosters personal watch list … cough, cough).

Okay, enough “italicized” chatter. Let’s jump right into the 2008 American Leauge “Hot” and “Not” players’ — stat lines through March 24th.

American League — Hot

Okay, so there are some guys here who aren’t a surprise. The point isn’t to reaffirm your decision to take ARod #1 … “Man, Rodriguez is having a great spring.” Really? You think? No, the point is to find guys you were worried about. Or had written off. Or didn’t even know.

Like, maybe, Mike Morse, the #4 outfielder in Seattle and backup to Sexson at 1b (last year he actually played a few games at 3b and one at ss, he’s an athlete). Or Shelley Duncan. Ryan Shealy. And Brian N. Anderson is trying to win a job in the CWS outfield after not living up to the hype in the past.

Really good news here is that Abreu and Mauer look to be healthy this year. So you should draft them with a little more confidence. And while Ian Kinsler looks to be proving the breakout candidate he is, Carlos Pena is making a strong argument he’s no one-year wonder.

Melvin Mora … Comeback Player o’the Year, perhaps? They tend to be guys you would never think of in a million years. Hence, the “Comeback.” Keep an eye on him.

Evan Longoria … The 2008 AL RoY? Maybe. But he was sent down to the minors and will have to work his back up to that, suddenly, talented Rays lineup. Shouldn’t take long though. Keep him on your radar.

But here’s maybe the most intriguing takeaway from the AL Hot list — that Texas outfield. Quick name it — Hamilton, Bradley and … they’ve penciled Marlon Byrd in as the left fielder. But what about, hmmm, David Murphy. Look at those numbers, would ya. Yowza. He’s supposedly the #4 outfielder in Rangerland, but he might be worth a late round “who’d that guy just pick?” flier. Especially in AL-only leagues.

So those are the bats. Let’s head out to the mound.

Neshek had a fine spring, but not as much of a story now that the Twins locked up Joe Nathan (who makes the Hot list too) to a 4-year deal. Had they dealt Nathan come mid-season, Neshek might’ve been a nice ciw pick up. Now he’s just a great middle reliever if you like those guys for whip, era and vulture wins/saves.

Good thing for the Angels that Weaver is having a great spring. Excellent 5 wins, head-and-shoulders above everyone else, including John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, combined, and their injury problems. (Also, reassuring for the Halos to see Joe Saunders on this list). Even before this great March showing, we thought Weaver could be a huge breakout candidate — nothing here to make us feel any differently.

Since these stats were pulled on March 24th, Roy Halladay got shelled in his last outing. To the tune of 10 runs. And sent the pundits in tizzies, bantering on about his declining K/bb ratio the last few years. Let them. They can pass on Halladay in the draft. We’re not.

And looky, looky, Rafael Betancourt in the house. You draft the Big Borowski (stealing a great nickname from a new MOTY friend, Toby Mergler … go check out his new blog, Welcome to the Show on MLB.com, especially any of you new to fantasy baseball — so is, Toby. And he waxes Hi-larical about it. (translation: he’s funny)). ANYway, if you draft the Big Borowski, get the Little Borowski, too. Betancourt’s a good bet to assume the closer role in Cleveland should Joe blow.

“Smokey, my friend, you’re entering a world of pain.” … Make sure you’re not Smokey.

Okay, a couple of nice late-round value guys making the Hot list too — Westbrook, Robertson, even Washburn. And again, same as Weaver, good to see Saunders and Adenhart, the next young arm in the Angels’ stable, having a strong Spring.

Andy Sonnanstine and Dana Eveland (who looks like he might make the A’s rotation) — don’t go to sleep on these 2008 sleeper picks.

American League — Not

Again, like the Hot list, the Not list for Spring Training isn’t to be taken as locked in stone, bad omen stuff. Most of these guys are going to be just fine, thank you very much. But if you were concerned about anyone coming into 2008, and they show up here … they may not have turned things around or recovered from an injury as you might have hoped. Maybe.

Almost unfair to have Baldelli on this list, as he only had 2 ab’s through March 24th. But … he only had 2 ab’s through March 24th. And that’s something to consider in and of itself.

Comparing the AL Hot and Not lists, a bit of a story seems to be unfolding — the Texas outfield. Whereas Hamilton and Murphy (and Mench) have had nice Spring Trainings, Milton Bradley — of the “coming off ACL surgery” Bradleys — has not. Murphy looks more and more intriguing. Just saying.

Normally, David Ortiz showing up on the Spring Training Not list would be a big snore. But not one dinger in 30 at bats? Many against pitchers who won’t sniff hot dog aroma in a major league park this year? “No big deal,” we all say, “Wait till the season starts.” Well, it already has for Big Papi — in Japan — and not much to speak of there either. He’s supposed to be healthy in 2008. We’re looking for a big year. But … naaaaah, it’s nothing.

With Josh Fields’ numbers, makes sense the ChiSox sent him down to AAA, resolving the starting position debate between him and Crede at 3b. Except, Crede ain’t been so special this March either. Doh.

Gotta say, hate seeing Brandon Wood among the Nots. Three bombs, sure, but the guy’s got to hit for higher average than 0.146 or he’s going to lose that “phenom on the farm” label. About time for him to mature into a major league hitter, or he’s going to find himself playing for the Orioles or Pirates or some other AAA team for what remains of his career.

Enough beating up on hitters … for stats we’ll all forget in a week. Let’s call out some hurlers for their poor spring stats.

We mentioned it in the beginning of this Talk, but it deserves another utterance — most pitchers are just building arm strength in Florida and Arizona. They’re trying out new pitches. And not showing hitters their best stuff or new pitches before the games really count. So they’re grooving a lot of fast balls just trying to get their work in.

Still, there’s a difference between grooving fastballs and giving up walks.

Guys we don’t like seeing walking more batters than they’ve struck out this spring include A.J. Burnett and Dontrelle Willis. Remember, they’re not facing ARod and Vlad every other batter. They’re pitching to a lot of young guys the same way the veteran hitters are feasting on young pitchers.

Obviously, a lot of the pitchers on the Not list are there because they haven’t pitched very many innings — like Lackey, Colon, Scot Shields and Eddie Guardado. But that, like with Baldelli, is worth noting.

Jeremy Bonderman with a 5.00+ era. The way he ended the 2007 season. Shock. Not. And, thus, not overly surprising to find him on the Not list.

The one guy that unfortunately does raise an eyebrow is Francisco Liriano. Everyone who played fantasy baseball in 2006 has been drooling over his return from TJ surgery. But apparently he’s been very tentative with his elbow this spring, not even throwing his devastating slider. Without it, he’s not the same old Johan Jr. from ’06. Let’s hope he gets stronger and regains his confidence.

Okay, so there’s a look at the Junior Circuit for Spring ’08. Keep an eye out for the NL version of MOTY’s Spring Training Hot and Not lists to be posted very, very soon.

Questions, thoughts, cool stories of how the MOTY System has helped your fantasy baseball team? Drop us an email. Your comments might show up here in a future MOTY Talk.

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