Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

Spring Training 2008: Hot & Not Players (NL)

March 31, 2008 — Okay, if you’ve already read our AL version of the Spring Training Hot and Not players (and we hope you have), you know we qualify the fact that these are spring stats and we shouldn’t read too much into them. Some. But not too much. Though, not ignore them all together either.

If you want to read the full rationale and set up to our Spring Hot and Not lists, hop over to the AL entry, then jump back here and catch up with the rest of us — we’ll probably be halfway through the “Hot” batters.

National League — Hot

First and foremost, it is very, very, very nice to see King Albert at the top of this list. We all know about the injury (check out our earlier MOTY Talk Q&A on the topic). So it’s really great to see him crushing the ball this spring. And word on the street is Pujols is tired of talking about it and has a chip on his shoulder (to go with the tear in his elbow).

Scan the list real quick and you probably notice something. Namely, Dodgers. Furcal’s had a great spring at the plate. And so have Ethier (a key to that trade with the A’s a few years ago), Kemp and Repko — all outfielders. Very interesting. The LAD depth chart on MLB.com lists, of course, Andruw Jones along with Juan Pierre and Matt Kemp as the starters. Based on our 2008 projections, sorted by MOTY# (overall fantasy value), we have Kemp, Andruw and … Ethier. Main reason is Pierre offers NO power, he’s two-dimensional as a fantasy outfielder.

But you gotta consider the fact that the Dodgers essentially have 2 center fielders. Someone might be expendable as trade bait (and it ain’t Andruw). Especially, with Ethier maturing into the player the Dodgers clearly thought he’d be — 14 runs, 6 hr, 15 rbi, 2 sb and 0.359 avg in 64 spring at bats. Not to mention, Repko putting up nice numbers, too.

Better put Hunter Pence on your short list for 2008 breakout players. Like … at the top.

And if you don’t know the name Yunel Escobar by now, you could be in for a long season. He is quite possibly the most overlooked player in 2008 fantasy baseball drafts we’ve seen so far. The Braves players love him. We do, too. Come on, the bandwagon’s pulling out — get on board already.

Despite a very nice spring, San Diego sent Headley down to AAA Portland. He’ll be back. But another Padre outfielder had a great spring — Paul McAnulty. Great sleeper pick, especially in NL-only leagues (maybe Jody Gerut, too, who’s filling in for Edmonds in center).

Other great sleeper picks for 2008: Chris Snyder, Skip Schumaker and Brian Barton.

But we’ve got 2 co-favorites to raise eyebrows at your draft. Eugenio Velez, 2b in SF … if he can break into the lineup (lead Spring Training in sb’s with 14) … and Jorge Cantu who has won the 3b job in Florida.

If his spring performance translates in ANY way to the regular season, a late-round pick like Cantu can be the type to help you win your league.

Okay, there are just some great K/bb ratios coming out of NL camps this spring. And that’s a stat we do put some credence in.

Like we said in the AL version of this Talk, grooving fastballs to get your work in is one thing. Go ahead, float those beach balls for professional hitters to crush over a chain link fence in Florida or Arizona. What do we care? But don’t walk more guys than you strikeout. Period.

And of all the guys with double digit spring K/bb ratios, you gotta love Kerry Wood the most … 10 K’s in 10 ip. Looks healthy. Lou says he’s looked great. And Wood has been named the Cubs’ closer. Finally, right?

Carlos Zambrano looks really, really good, too. Call us crazy, but come October, we all might be calling him Cy Young.

John Maine has just been dominant. Harang looks good. And Brad Penny has to be considered the Roy Halladay of the National League … going waaaaaay too low in drafts. Especially, given his 2007 campaign: 16 wins and 3.03 era.

As for sleeper picks among NL pitchers, some very interesting names surface in the Hot list as potential considerations. Like Edison Volquez, the arm the Reds got from Texas in the Josh Hamilton deal. And even though John Lieber is starting the season in the pen as the long reliever, he has had a nice spring in his return to Chicago (can you say “possible comeback player”? … remember, they are long shots by definition).

If Scott Olsen can focus his intensity on the field rather than off, he could pay great dividends by season’s end — hey, the Marlins aren’t going to lose 162 games and somebody’s gonna be credited with the wins. Could be a nice late-round pick, most notably in NL-only leagues.

On the flip side, somebody’s gonna save those games for the Fish — if Kevin Gregg loses the closer job or gets traded or whatever, keep Joe Nelson top of mind as his replacement.

National League — Not

The NL batter Not list is littered with guys dealing with injury situations. Either coming off injury and/or surgery since last year, or dealing with developments this March. The most notable among the later being Jim Edmonds, who is reported to have gotten into great shape in the off season, and Jeremy Hermida, who’s apparently fighting hamstring problems. Both are starting the season on the DL.

The most glaring development on the Not list has got to be the Mets. Six of them appear among the ranks of the poorest Spring Training performances we’re highlighting … 5 of them starters — Beltran, Delgado, Castillo, Alou and Schneider. Though all but Alou, who you probably know had recent hernia surgery, have been in the lineup to finish out March. Still, Beltran and Castillo both had 2 knee surgeries in the off-season, thus the slow starts. To a man, they’ll probably be fine, but don’t be surprised if the Metropolitans start a little slow out of the gate.

Through March 24th, Dallas McPherson was hitting 0.095. He’s now in AAA. And Jorge Cantu is at the hot corner for the Marlins.

Jimmy Rollins shows up in the Not list. Big whoop. He’s the least concern of any.

As for Brian Giles … don’t know what to tell you. He’s coming off a knee surgery that, had it not worked, could’ve spell the end of Brian’s career. Question is “Did it work?” He only had 12 ab’s for consideration in this Not list and that’s about the extent of his spring stat line, just 1 run scored and a 0.250 avg. No way to really tell.

Might want to pass on the Padre right fielder who used to be a fantasy stud.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, another one of St. Doug’s Fathers had a rough spring, too. And Chase Headley (who also plays 3b) didn’t. Yet they sent him down to AAA. Gotta wonder, since Headley was actually vying for an outfield slot. More than likely, it’s a “reality baseball” contract/options move. But that doesn’t help your team.

Patience, patience.

Story's different with many pitchers on the NL Not list.

Tragically, we are totally unsurprised by the top three names here. And cannot recommend drafting any of them.

Not even Zito. He walks too many batters for our comfort level. And looky there — a 0.31 K/bb ratio for spring ’08. His 2007 K/bb? 1.58. And 2006: 1.53. Not only that, last year he had a losing record (11-13) with a 4.53 era. It might be a different story if we thought the Giants were going to be a high scoring offense. But we don’t.

Avoid, avoid, avoid.

Saito and Smoltz show up, but seems nothing to be too worried about. Takashi only put in 4 innings of work through March 24th, John 4.2. Both dealing with some dings, the most worrisome of the two being Smoltz. But seems now there’s less rather than more reason to be concerned. Yeah, he’s starting the year on the DL, but he and the Braves seem confident he’ll make his April 6th start against the Mets.

You may find it interesting that Jake Peavy and Ben Sheets make the Not list. Both with horrid whip and era. We’re not worried about it. Gotta figure they’re both just building arm strength and not showing their best stuff. Key is, command and control are just fine. Both have nice K/bb ratios. They’re getting hit, ’cause they don’t mind getting hit — they’re in control and command of the situation.

Though, sheets is becoming the poster child for “The most likely to hit the DL.” But if there’s a guy worth taking a chance on rebounding, he’s a great high risk/reward guy. Draft him knowing that his Spring Training 1.82 whip and 6.55 era ain’t showing up on your roster come Opening Day.

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