Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

NL Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year

December 12, 2005 — The winners of the 2005 MLB Comeback Player of the Year Awards, Presented by Viagra weren’t too surprising — Ken Griffey, Jr. in the NL, Jason Giambi in the AL.

The winners of the 2005 Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year Awards – presented by MOTY – should definitely open some eyes.

In this MOTY Talk edition, we’ll unveil our ’05 Fantasy Comeback Player for the National League. (Be sure to check out the American League version as well.) But first, we need to set the stage — what defines a “comeback player?” Hmmmm. Well, MLB says, “The award will recognize the players who have re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season.” Fair enough. Giambi certainly did that. But how do you qualify “re-emerging” on the fantasy baseball field?

Actually, there are a couple of pretty straightforward ways. One, compare a player’s actual MOTY# to his projected MOTY#. Dramatically outperforming his projection earns him consideration (keep in mind, MOTY projections take into account factors like returning from injury, age, performance trends, etc.). Two, compare a player’s 2005 MOTY# to his 2004 MOTY#. Again, a huge jump indicates a Comeback performance.

Ah, but, there is one caveat. To be considered a Comeback nominee, the player has to have previously put up valuable fantasy numbers. A guy who blows away his projected MOTY# but has never put up big numbers in the past isn’t a “comeback” player — he’s a “breakout” player (can you say, “Felipe Lopez?”). And that’s a different MOTY Talk entry all together. Stay tuned.

Okay, so, starting with the MLB’s official nominees – which fans got to vote for online – let’s draft a list of NL fantasy Comeback potentials, including their actual ’05 MOTY#s , projected ’05 MOTY#s, their % of ’05 projections, plus their actual ’04 MOTY#s and their % of ’05 to ’04 MOTY#s:

Some big names here, some guys who had really nice fantasy seasons. But, based on % of ’05 projections, the MOTY System tells us to add some other players to the list:

CHAN WHO WHAT?!

Does a bear wear a funny hat in the woods? (re: Yes — based on how much better he performed than he was projected to. “He” being Chan Ho, not the bear). Remember, “… the players who have re-emerged on the (fantasy) baseball field during a given season.” And, a 12374% improvement over expectation isn’t just a “re-emergence,” that’s a David Copperfield trick entitled: “Pulling 12 Wins Out of Thin Air.” Here’s how the whole pool ranks when sorted by % of ’05 projections:

If you didn’t know any better, you might think this chart was taken from an article about the 2000 fantasy season, making it a pretty solid list of 13 Comeback candidates for 2005.

Actually, 13 sounds more like a herd. And it’s time to thin the herd, starting with — Jeff Cirillo. Yes, he almost doubled is ’05 MOTY projection and bested his 2004 MOTY# by a factor of 554%, but his stat line …

… just doesn’t warrant a roster spot on your fantasy team. Sorry, Jeff. Nice season, but … gone.

In Colorado, Brian Fuentes beat his projected MOTY# by 236% and crushed his ’04 MOTY# by nearly nine-and-a-half times (949%). However, there’s a very obvious reason for this — in a word, “opportunity.” Before the 2005 season Chin-hui Tsao was projected as the Colorado closer, Fuentes merely a set up man. Then Tsao went down to injury and Fuentes got his “opportunity” to shine, racking up 31 saves — 27 more than his previous career best. He had a great year. But it was a breakout year, not a Comeback year. Thanks for breaking out, Brian. Gone.

Back on the east coast, we find two candidates who, by all measures thus far, belong on the list. But something interesting is going on with Livan Hernandez and Cliff Floyd. These two charts highlight their career MOTY#s by year, +/- change over the previous year and career average MOTY#:

It’s more pronounced with Hernandez, but definitely appears in Floyd’s career chart as well — these two players are serial Comeback players! Excluding their first big jumps in MOTY# – their “breakout” years – both players’ career graphs show three dramatic leaps in fantasy value following downward trends. Both have already had three Comeback seasons! — ’00, ’03, ’05 for Hernandez; ’98, ’00, ’05 for Floyd.  And Livan is so unwaveringly consistent, his MOTY#s rise and fall as smoothly as the Dalai Lama’s EKG. The 2005 season for these guys wasn’t so much a Comeback season as it was a section of a rollercoaster career. And this ain’t the Rollercoaster of the Year award. Livan, Cliff, “You must be this tall to ride this ride” — gone.

While all of these players’ stories are “feel good” in nature, there’s one underdog you might really be cheering for. Still, as much as we’d like to see Damian Jackson win our Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year, he won’t. He smashed his projected MOTY# (257%) and absolutely smoked his 2004 MOTY# at a 5171% clip. His 5 homers in 2005 were eye opening, but he’s made it this far in the conversation because of his stolen bases — 15 swipes in ’05. That’s a nice Comeback in one category, but his 14.67 MOTY# just doesn’t compare, impact-wise, to the MOTY#s of other players vying for the award. Hate to say it, but Jackson’s “feel good” story just doesn’t feel good enough. Sniffle, sniffle … gone.

Now for a little controversy. Troy Glaus hit 37 dingers, drove in 97 runs, scored 78 and posted an .885 ops, nearly doubling his ’04 MOTY# (197%). But that’s pretty much what the MOTY System projected, pre-season ranking him the #6 3b (NL). Glaus finished the season as the #4 3b (NL), outperforming his ’05 MOTY projection by a slight 108%. With expectation being a factor fantasy-wise, 8% isn’t exactly a “re-emergence.” The power hitting 3b isn’t just off to Toronto — he’s off our list. “But, Troy, on your way out, could you send Morgan in, please?”

Huh? Morgan Ensberg? Yes, he had a fantastic 2005, in reality and fantasy, registering a career high MOTY#. In fact, if you told us he had gotten married, fathered triplets, won the Powerball and captured Osama Bin Laden in 2005, we wouldn’t be surprised. It was that great a season for Houston’s 3b. But, much like Jay Gibbons in the AL, Ensberg merely corrected a one-year setback on the natural upward trend anticipated for his career, which his MOTY#s reflect — 0.00 (’00, only 7 ab), 0.00 (’01), 6.81 (’02), 41.97 (’03), 26.29 (’04), 59.37 (’05). 2005 wasn’t as much a Comeback year as it was a “correction” year. So we’re correcting the list and taking Ensberg off it.

Besting his projected MOTY# by 174% and his ’04 MOTY# by 195%, Rich Aurilia seems to be a cinch Comeback candidate. Except for two things. First, not to sound defensive, but … his defense. Except for his meteoric 2001 at the plate, Aurilia is as valuable for his defense as he is his bat. And you know how much weight defense carries in fantasy. Second, bracketing that 2001 season (75.00 MOTY#), his MOTY#s since 1998 are fairly consistent: 21.63 (’98), 37.04 (’99), 35.01 (’00), 75.00 (’01), 27.86 (’02), 27.69 (’03), 16.41 (’04), 31.98 (’05). Aurilia’s 2005 MOTY# is only 2.10 below his 8-year average (34.08). And while ’05 was one of Comeback for Rich, it wasn’t really that much of a “re-emergence” or impactful enough a fantasy season to rank with other names on our list. Gone.

At this point, things get tighter – even tighter than in the AL – every player on the list has a decent case to win the fantasy Comeback award. But only one will. So, let’s take a look at the remaining candidates, adding two additional categories for more perspective — career best MOTY# and % of ’05 to career best MOTY#:

Who knew? — Griffey ranks last when comparing his 2005 MOTY# to his career best. Whereas 2005 was Jones’ career best. Pettitte and Clark not only had strong comebacks from 2004, they both nearly matched their career high MOTY#s at 89% and 82% respectively. Keep that in mind as we examine our five finalists and their stat lines, including MOTY#s, for 2005, 2005 proj. and 2004.

Jones’ 40 saves ranked 6th most in MLB, 4th most in the NL. He posted the 5th best whip for all major league closers, better than Trevor Hoffman (43.82 MOTY#), B.J. Ryan (34.10), Francisco Rodriguez (39.01) and Brad Lidge (46.25). He also tallied the 7th best era among MLB closers. His 4.43 K/bb ratio ranked 4th among all closers, better than Billy Wagner (47.92), Joe Nathan (51.59), B.J. Ryan (34.10) and Chad Cordero (43.33).

Pettitte’s 59.38 MOTY# made him the 30th most valuable player in all of fantasy baseball in 2005, the 7th most valuable pitcher in MLB, and 3rd most valuable in NL-only leagues. His 17 wins tied Randy Johnson (55.48 MOTY#) and Jon Lieber (32.36) for 5th most in MLB. He posted the 7th best whip for major league starters, better than Jake Peavy (54.74), Chris Carpenter (85.92), Dontrelle Willis (65.78) and Bartolo Colon (69.59). And registered the 4th lowest era for major league starters, trailing only Zach Duke (49.31), Roger Clemens (50.46), Paul Maholm (32.41 in 41.33 ip) and Matt Cain (26.79 in 46.33 ip).

Tony the former Tiger’s 49.96 MOTY# ranked him 12th among MLB 1b, 6th in the NL. He ranked 16th in HR (MLB) ahead of Jeff Kent (61.51 MOTY#), Jim Edmonds (49.74), David Wright (66.35), Miguel Tejada (57.00) and Bobby Abreu (63.35); 12th in the NL. He tied Jason Giambi (51.00) for 9th most rbi among MLB 1b, ranking 4th in the NL. Using the MOTY Scope™,  we find that Clark’s batting average rated 8th best among all MLB 1b with at least 50 ab, ahead of Carlos Delgado (67.72), Mark Teixeira (87.01), David Ortiz (94.59) and Lance Berkman (50.68). He tied Travis Hafner (71.89) for 5th highest OPS in all of baseball, behind only Mike Jacobs (17.38 in 100 abs), Derrek Lee (103.11), Albert Pujols (103.20) and Arod (104.91).

Admittedly, much of Park’s re-emergence occurred in Texas, but since San Deigo is where he finished the season, he’s included in the NL list. His 12 wins tied the likes of Roy Halladay (62.02 MOTY#), Jason Schmidt (33.29) and A.J. Burnett (18.46) for 10th most in the majors.

In an injury-shortened, 491-at-bat season, Junior finished 12th in homeruns, ahead of Gary Sheffield (69.75), Miguel Cabrera (78.22)  and Vladimir Guerrero (75.09); 7th in the NL, and 4th among all outfielders (MLB). He tied for 16th in batting average among all MLB outfielders, posted the 16th highest ops among all major league hitters with at least 100 ab, and registered the 10th highest slugging percentage, ahead of Andruw Jones (66.93), Mark Teixeira (87.01), Vlad and Miguel Cabrera.

The Results

Chan Ho Park’s huge leap in MOTY# for 2005 was remarkable, and his 12 wins were a nice bump for some fantasy owners. However, his 5.74 era and 1.67 whip were simply too hard to stomach to give him the award. As for Todd Jones and his career-high MOTY#, not one number in his stat line was cause for a shot of Pepto-Bismol, but, tragically, the Florida closer loses votes for the same reason Brian Fuentes did — his season was as dependent upon another player floundering (Guillermo Mota) as it was his own resurgence.

For years now, everone’s been saying, “If only Griffey can stay healthy ...” And finally he did, for the most part. But that’s the catch. As gifted as he is, it was always just a matter of playing time for Junior, making his 2005 less of a “re-emergence” than Pettitte’s or Clark’s.

Now, honestly, after moving to the bandbox in Houston and suffering an injury-plagued 2004, who thought Pettitte would win 17 games, post career bests in era and whip, and the second highest MOTY# of his career? Aside from Roger Clemens, very, very few people. But NO ONE anticipated 30 hr, 87 rbi, 47 runs, a .304 avg and 1.002 ops from the “undraftable” Tony Clark — in only 349 at bats (142 fewer than Griffey)!

For that reason, MOTY’s 2005 NL Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year is …

Tony Clark.

Congrats to those who added Tony to your roster for 2005.