Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

Dominate Your 2006 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Part 1

March 4, 2006 — So, I was driving along today, listening to the Reds and Yankees on XM Radio, when Edwin Encarnacion hit his third dinger in 2 games — this one off Randy Johnson.

“Sweet relief, baseball is back, and not a moment too soon,” I thought. “This is going to be an interesting year.” Of course, it is just Spring Training and we do have to take that with a grain of salt. Or do we? Hmm, we’ll discuss that in a future MOTY Talk very, very soon.

Actually, we’ll talk about A LOT in future MOTY Talks. Very, very soon. Rookies, sleepers, ballpark affects – in MOTY terms (you’re going to love this one), comeback candidates, potential busts, a more realistic view of base stealers’ values … . The list of developments and topics for the 2006 season is virtually endless. But trust me, we tackle them all — in ways no one but MOTY can.

We’re also going to analyze several, actual drafts, beginning with the first annual Writers Radio Invitational League, started by Brian Wilmer and Ed Barnes of The Writers Radio. We’ll break down the 12 managers’ draft picks – which players, what round – to help you recognize similar approaches as they unfold in your draft. We’ll also highlight the surprise picks, the sleepers, the “flyers” and the players who “fell” in the draft.

As for this MOTY Talk, the first of 2006, let’s start where every fantasy team starts — draft prep.

“With the first pick (insert your name here) selects …”

Draft day is easily the most fun of the fantasy baseball season. And, frankly, the most critical. So don’t expect the same old “how to draft” litany here that you can read in any fantasy magazine. No, the MOTY System looks at the fantasy game and players from a new perspective. And the tools in the MOTY Draft War Room – MOTY’s 2006 player projections, ComboCats, Talent Tiers and Untouchables – use that perspective to give you the edge you need to make the smart picks and dominate your draft.

With that, here are some “Draft Thoughts” — things to remember and consider (in a 5x5 league) as you prepare for your draft:

• Every home run = 3 fantasy points (run, hr, rbi). Every stolen base = 1 fantasy point (stolen base). That’s not to say you should punt stolen bases. Far from it. sb’s are very valuable … just not as valuable as hr’s.
• In the entire history of baseball, no player has ever stolen a base or scored a run without first getting on base. Translation: “Beware the low obp guys!”
• You’re not drafting your “final” team, you’re drafting the “foundation” of your team, a strong mix of players fitting your strategy, a solid core that will give you flexibility to maneuver in trade talks and free agency moves once the season starts.
• Injuries WILL happen (Bonds, Gagne ’05). Studs WILL bust (Lowell, B.Boone ’05). Happens every season, it’ll happen this season. Draft with this in mind — no matter what strategy you take, try to have more than one solid guy eligible at each position, because predicting injuries is tricky at best.
• Equally, sleepers and rookies WILL emerge (F. Lopez, Duke ’05). And players WILL bounce back (Pettitte, T. Clark ’05). Snatching these guys up early in the season is almost like having extra rounds in your draft — using the MOTY rankings and MOTY Scope™, you’ll find them before other managers even know their names.
• Like it or not, luck plays a major role throughout the fantasy season. In 2005, Roy Halladay owners suffered bad luck, Todd Jones owners enjoyed good luck. Maybe it was “Ye Olde Magic 8-Ball” factor. But there’s an adage that essentially says you make good fortune shine on you by being in the right place. In fantasy baseball, nothing puts you in the right place like the MOTY System, the weekly MOTY rankings and the MOTY Scope. You’ll hear other managers say how lucky you are to pick up all the right guys at the right time. It’ll be less luck and more MOTY than they’ll ever know.
• In ESPN and Yahoo! leagues, pay NO attention to post-draft league standings — more often than not, they’re based on last year’s final stats. Of course, if you really think Aaron Small will go 10-0 again, and Barry Bonds will only get 42 at bats in ’06, by all means, put credence in your post-draft, pre-season league standings … then panic, thinking you have to make dramatic changes to your roster and make stupid pre-season trades.
• “Drafting While Drinking” can be disastrous, unless everyone in the draft is DWD. Might be fun (if you’re of age). But probably gonna make for an ugggggly team — the next morning. And then you have to live with “her” for 162 games. Not pretty. And, come to think of it, in the end, not much fun either.
• Pay attention to other managers' draft picks. “Really? You think?” Hey, it’s easy to get caught up and not notice if someone is trying to corner a position or scoring category. If another manager is trying to corner, say saves, and you haven’t drafted any closers, or maybe only one at that point, consider going deep in a position you’re already strong at, like shortstop or 3b (which the “closer” team is also weak at), to set yourself up to make a deal with that other team after the draft for – you guessed it – a closer.
• After you rank guys for your draft, draw up some shortlists at each position, including “backup picks,” so that if someone takes the guy you really want just before you pull the trigger, you have one or two guys you can immediately fall back to. Trying to find a “replacement” pick can be very distracting and throw off the flow of your entire draft. (In more harsh terms, this is known as “panicking.”)
• EVERY SINGLE DRAFT IS DIFFERENT. Expect the unexpected. For example, prevailing trends have either ARod or Pujols going #1 overall this year. But I’ve already seen a draft in which the first pick was … Randy Johnson. Still a good starter, but #1 overall? Which leads us to …
• In a 10-team league, you only directly control your picks — or 10% of the draft. Similarly, in an 8-team league, only 12.5% of the draft. And a mere 8.25% of the draft in a 12-team league.

Ten percent of the draft. Hmmm. Not the sort of odds you want strolling into the OK Corral. But then again, in a 10-team league, every owner only controls 10% of the draft. Either way you look at it, what you’re left with is a compelling argument for preparation.

Dominate Your 2006 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Part 2