Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

Spring Training 2009: Hot & Not Players (NL)

March 27, 2009 — Okay, if you’ve already read my AL version of the Spring Training Hot and Not players (and I hope you have), you know I qualify the fact that these are spring stats and we shouldn’t read too much into them. Some. But not too much. Though, you shouldn’t ignore them all together either.

If you want to read the full rationale and set up to the Spring Hot and Not lists, hop over to the AL entry, then jump back here and catch up with the rest of us — we’ll probably be halfway through the “Hot” batters.

National League — Hot

First, thing that probably jumps off the list at you is how many farmhands there are — Jesus Guzman, Jake Fox, Andres Torres, Kyle Blanks … as much as anything, probably has to do with how many veterans/regulars were playing in the WBC. But still interesting.

It's great to see Ryan Howard on the ’09 Spring Hot list, hitting jacks and for better average than he did in 2008, espcically given his horrid first half avg. last year. Of course, when you see a lot of other guys hitting well over 0.400 this spring, it’d be more reassuring to see Ryan hitting more than 0.286. Actually, it gets even more telling when you examine his career stats. The last three seasons, since taking over full time at 1b, he’s declined in avg, obp, slg%, ops and bb/K — each and every year. Ouch. No shock, his MOTY# dropped each year as well.

Still, the Phillies slugger is on the Hot list, so let's think positive. Same goes for Todd Helton. A developing “Comeback” story there? Perhaps.

But not as compellingly so as the case you can start to make for Khalil Greene. New lineup, new uniform, new stadium. And hopefully well past his recent run of injuries. Can only hope he turns things around from last year. And, looking at his spring numbers through March 23, there's no reason to believe he isn't well on his way. Pencil him as a great sleeper/comeback player. A smart, last-round flier pick.

As for breakout players, three scream off the list — Sandoval (everyone's pick for Breakout Player of the Year), Ryan Spilborghs and a super-sleeper we’re really starting to take notice of — Travis Ishikawa. He's yet to turn heads like Sandoval, but the Giants have penciled him in at 1b this year, and he did come into his own last year at AAA Fresno with 16 hr in 171 ab’s and a 1.107 ops.

But enough bats. Let’s look out yonder toward the mound.

Paul Maholm.

Chris Carpenter.

Add them to, or upgrade them on, your draft list now. They’re both dead lock steals at almost any round beginning in the 13th or 14th. Especially Maholm, who’s going, on average, 239th out of 250 picks in ESPN live drafts. And only owned in 13% of teams. Which means 87% of those leagues are ripe for the taking.

Essentially what that means is he’s going undrafted. Sure, he slings it for the lowly (though, it feels like there’s a little something trying to happen in Steel Town*) Pirates. But he’s their #1. And lest you forget, finished last year with a 24.93 MOTY#. Not top-tier, but not too shabby either in the grand scheme of things.

*Zach Duke looks like the Zach Duke of 2005, not his evil twin in 2006-2008.

Two Nationals make the Hot list. Lannan, a favorite sleeper from last year, and the youngster Zimmerman with a fantasic 10.00 K/bb ratio in 14.1 innings.

National League — Not

And now the … Not List. But don't go downgrading every (or many) of the guys listed. Keep in mind, showing up here isn't the kiss of death. More than anything, if you were concerned about anyone coming into 2009, and they show up here … they may not have turned things around or recovered from an injury as you might have hoped.

Like Vlad on the AL Not list, Manny is only here because of the limited (5) at bats. Manny will be Manny. Utley will be Utley. And Hanley will be Hanley.

Though, reading between the lines here, you'll notice a story developing in the Marlins camp.

Both Cantu and McPherson, corner infielders for the Fish, are having slow-start springs. Cantu will be fine. McPherson, though … he’s becoming Crash Davis — a great minor leaguer. Where the story unfolds is that, with Cantu playing 1b and McPherson playing in AAA or off the bench, the hot corner opens up for … Emilio Bonifacio. A guy who suddenly looks like a secret stash of 25+ sb potential with a 500+ ab’s. Which is exactly what it looks like he’s gonna get. How’s that for a spring training development and positive spin on the "Not" list?

Gotta be honest, nothing really huge jumps off the page here. Think all we're seeing is a bunch of guys building up arm strength, working on new pitches, getting ready for the season.

Basically … Spring Training.

BUT, if you think you see something worth expounding on — a crazy-loud red flag flapping in the wind of Arizona or Florida — fire of an email to us. We’ll get your comments posted in an upcoming MOTY Talk.

Shawn

Questions, thoughts, cool stories of how the MOTY System has helped your fantasy baseball team? Drop us an email. Your comments might show up here in a future MOTY Talk.

Spring Training 2009: Hot & Not Players (AL)

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