[ Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year: MOTY Talk ]

The Writers Radio Invitational League Draft Recap: Rounds 1–8

March 17, 2006 — Welcome to this year’s first draft review, in which we’ll follow the actual draft for the 1st Annual Writers Radio Invitational League (WRIL), obviously after the fact. We’ll follow the picks and examine how 12 different managers maneuver and react through 23 rounds of selections.

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WRIL Settings

12-team Yahoo! league
MLB player universe, 5x5 Roto scoring categories
23-round, live draft, serpentine
Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF (3), Util, SP (2), RP (2), P (4), BN (6), DL (2)

“The Players” — WRIL Background:

Brian Wilmer and Ed Barnes, hosts of The Writers Radio podcast, started the 12-team league with a group of experts/friends and a sprinkling of The Writers Radio listeners. After being a guest on the show twice now, I can say I don’t care what anyone says about Brian and Ed — I like these guys. Seriously, they do a smart, funny sports show, with a refreshingly, non-conventional bent. And from the looks of the teams/managers in the WRIL, the league looks to be on par with the show. That said, here are the teams, in the order they drafted:

Average Joe's * — Mariah Johnson, listener
The Bat Wings — Brian Wilmer of The Writers Radio
Mark Lemke Knuckler — Patrick Sands of The Valley Times-News
JR Slackers * — Denis Savage of MadFriars.com
PB & J-Lo Sandwich — Shawn Wood (me) of FantasyBaseballMOTY.com
EB & BW R My Bitches — Eric Mirlis of The Writers
The Bad Decisions — Ed Barnes of The Writers Radio
Frank Thomas’ Kleenex * — Tom Normanly, listener
FutureBacks.com * — James Renwick of FutureBacks.com
Horny Weasels * — Rob Simpson, listener
Ducksnort * — Pete Krawczyk of FantasyBaseballMOTY.com
Clairemont Crushers — Geoff Young of Ducksnorts

Okay, then. Let’s get on with the draft, which had a little bit of everything, including six teams on auto-pilot, denoted with an *.

Pick	Team	Draft Pick	Comments
1	Average Joe’s *	Randy Johnson	NYY	sp	“Pujols or ARod? ARod or Pujols … huh?” Talk about a curveball. You could almost hear the collective jaw-drop. Then the mad scurry of shuffling cheat sheets.
2	Bat Wings	Johan Santana	MIN	sp	“Okay, who’s Brian going with? Pujols or ARod? ARod or Pujols? … Johan. Well, what do you follow a curveball with? Apparently another curveball. This means that either Pujols or ARod will drop to the #4 pick. Who’da thunk it? Probably not Slackers.
3	Mark Lemke	Alex Rodriquez	NYY	3b	The rip in the universe has starting mending itself.
4	Slackers *	Albert Pujols	STL	1b	Lucky bastard. On auto-pilot, too.
5	PB & J-Lo	Vladimir Guerrero	LAA	of	Never thought I’d get him at #5.
6	Bitches	Mark Teixeira	TEX	1b	Peter Gammons pegged him for 50 hr’s on BBTN.
7	Bad Decisions	Manny Ramirez	BOS	of	Manny at #7 — Ed’s got to be stoked.
8	Frank Thomas *	David Ortiz	BOS	1b	Interchange Teixeira, Manny and Ortiz at 6-7-8 and no one would bat an eye. Seems obvous that Tom, on auto-pilot, pre-ranked his draft list.
9	FutureBacks.com *	Derrek Lee	CHC	1b	Maybe a tad early, but a solid pick. Only two 1b qualified as MOTY ComboCats for 2006. And the other one’s already been drafted.
10	Horny Weasels *	Michael Young	TEX	ss	Great player. Thin Position. An easy first rounder.
11	Ducksnort *	Carl Crawford	TB	of	A very popular first round pick this year. And he’ll produce. But there are very valuable guys at much thinner positions on the board …
12	Crushers	David Wright	NYM	3b	… like this one. Thought he’d go a few picks earlier. Power and good speed at 3b — Wright could be a monster this year.

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Pick	Team	Draft Pick			Comments
13	Crushers	Jason Bay	PIT	of	Excellent 5-tool player. And great anchor for any outfield. Could’ve gone in Round 1.
14	Ducksnort *	Miguel Cabrera	FLA	3b	Lot of speculation about his production without his former teammates in the batting order. I think he’ll be fine. Plus, Pete took an outfielder in Round 1. An “All Star” 3b is a very fine Round 2 pick.
15	Horny Weasels *	Bobby Abreu	PHI	of	Consistent, year-in-year-out, 5-tool player.
16	FutureBacks.com *	Miguel Tejada	BAL	ss	If Michael Young’s not the #1 ss, Tejada is. Great Round 2 pick, filing one of the “thinner” positions.
17	Frank Thomas *	Todd Helton	COL	1b	Had a very un-Helton-like first half last year, but still a top 1b. If Tom wasn’t on auto-pilot, he probably doesn’t take him. Then again, he might’ve taken the “draft the best player on the board” approach, or tried to corner the 1b slot.
18	Bad Decisoins	Chris Carpenter	STL	sp	2005 NL Cy Young winner.
19	Bitches	Ichiro Suzuki	SEA	of	First pick I personally felt went too high. Oh, wait, Randy Johnson went #1 overall. Second pick I personally think went too high. Ichiro is a good player, but … “hr’s = 3 fantasy pts, sb’s = 1 fantasy pt”. Plus, Eric taking Ichiro opens the door for me to take …
20	PB & J-Lo	Chase Utely	PHI	2b	2b is the second thinnest position this year. Utley is an “Elite” Talent Tier player for ’06, a “40 Club” ComboCat, and now my starting 2b.
21	Slackers *	Jake Peavy	SD	sp	Hmm. Great pitcher, on the verge of superstardom, in a pitcher’s park. Still, seems a little high. Then again, Denis is on auto-pilot.
22	Mark Lemke	Dontrelle Willis	FLA	sp	Given all the changes in Florida, feels like Patrick took the D-Train a few stops too early. Though Dontrelle still should have a solid year.
23	Bat Wings	Victor Martinez	CLE	c	Far and away the best player at the thinnest fantasy position. Hard to argue with the pick, though some will.
24	Average Joe’s *	Jamie Moyer	SEA	sp	Every draft has a wild card. Mariah is this one’s. Even on auto-pilot, Moyer wouldn’t be picked at #24. Or #124. $100 says she’s a Mariners fan.

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Pick	Team	Draft Pick			Comments
25	Average Joe’s *	Kenji Johijima	SEA	c	Somebody owes me $100.
26	Bat Wings	Ryan Howard	PHI	1b	That ballpark, that lineup, Howard’s gonna put up numbers. But Hafner, Delgado, Sexson, Konerko are still on the board. Looks like Brian played a hunch and moved Howard up on his draft list.
27	Mark Lemke	Frankie Rodriquez	LAA	cl	The first closer goes - and it’s not Mariano. How long till the run starts?
28	Slackers *	Jose Reyes	NYM	ss	A definite move for stolen bases, played by the auto-pilot. True, ss is very thin. But I gotta wonder if Denis makes this pick himself at #28.
29	PB & J-Lo	Pedro Martinez	NYM	sp	Normally, I wouldn’t take a starter with my third pick. But if Pedro’s on the board at #29, gotta take him.
30	Bitches	Roy Oswalt	HOU	sp	Could be the best sp at year’s end.
31	Bad Decisions	Gary Sheffield	NYY	of	Dude is a machine. One of the guys I would’ve taken over Ichiro.
32	Frank Thomas *	Barry Bonds	SF	of	Fairly-high risk, possibly-huge reward. At #32, he could be a steal … or a wasted pick.
33	FutureBacks.com *	Alfonso Soriano	WAS	2b	Looks like an absolute steal at #33, given some of the previous picks. But Soriano has moved to R.F.K. where pitchers flourish. His plate discipline is notoriously suspect – avg, obp and bb/K have declined each of the last 3 years. Still, he is a 55 Club ComboCat and in the “All Star” Talent Tier – few players offer 30/30 potential.
34	Horny Weasels *	Andruw Jones	ATL	of	Last year’s home run king. Wish the average was higher.
35	Ducksnort *	Chone Figgins	LAA	2b	Everybody’s talking about his sb’s and multiple position eligibility. I love Chone Figgins … but he’s a 3-category guy. And there are plenty of 4-category guys on the board. Besides, Pete already has Crawford’s sb’s … auto-pilot strikes again.
36	Crushers	Jimmy Rollins	PHI	ss	Reyes, Soriano, Figgins … looks like a run on middle infielders, auto-pilot induced. Good thing for Geoff, the pilot took Reyes and Figgins before Rollins. MOTY projects Rollins to beat Reyes in 4 categories, Figgins in 3, and Soriano in 3. Hey … that makes Rollins the best choice of the four. Who knew? ;)

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Pick	Team	Draft Pick			Comments
37	Crushers	Marcus Giles	ATL	2b	Second great pick in a row. By Adj. MOTY#, Giles should’ve gone before Reyes and Figgins. Geoff has a great middle infield, and can now focus on other positions.
38	Ducksnort *	Roy Halladay	TOR	sp	Were it not for a fluke comebacker, Halladay probably wins the ’05 AL Cy Young. Started just 19 games last … still MOTY’s #6 sp in 2005. And projected to finish #4 for 2006. A solid 2nd rounder, a surprise drop to the 4th round.
39	Horny Weasels *	Jeff Kent	LAD	2b	Power at 2b. Nice pick. With M. Young at ss, Rob has a great middle infield.
40	FutureBacks.com *	Aramis Ramirez	CHC	3b	Aramis is slipping under the radar a little this year. MOTY ranks him as the #25 overall pick. He’s a real bargain at #40.
41	Frank Thomas *	Lance Berkman	HOU	of	Qualifies at 1b and of in most leagues. Earned a 50.68 MOTY# in ’05 in only 468 ab. Look for both to increase in a healthy 2006.
42	Bad Decisoins	Carlos Delgado	NYM	1b	Shea-shmea. Delgado is a money, “Competitive” 1b. Though, Hafner is still out there …
43	Bitches	Rick Harden	OAK	sp	A very good sp. Looks like Eric’s going for an “ace monopoly.” After 4 rounds, Teixeira is his only power hitter. Ichiro in the 2nd seems even more premature. Be interesting to how Eric fills out his power categories.
44	PB & J-Lo	Travis Hafner	CLE	util	… Hafner is no longer out there. Can’t believe he dropped to me at #44. Then again, he only qualifies at “Util” … not even at 1b. So what … looking for 35 hr, 114 rbi, 98 runs, .298 this year.
45	Slackers *	Rafael Furcal	LAD	ss	Two base-stealing ss in a row. The auto-pilot is cornering sb’s and ss’s for Denis whether he likes it or not.
46	Mark Lemke	Brad Lidge	HOU	cl	The second closer goes – to the same team. And it’s not Mariano. Lidge was the only cl with 100+ K’s in ’05. Patrick’s looking to corner saves.
47	Bat Wings	Jorge Cantu	CLE	2b	Great newcomer at 2b. With his rare power at a very thin position, I almost took him 3 picks earlier … despite already having Utley.
48	Average Joe’s *	Richie Sexson	SEA	1b	Right there with Delgado, though somewhat a liability avg-wise. Despite the auto-pilot from SEA-TAC, this is a good pick.

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Pick	Team	Draft Pick			Comments
49	Average Joe’s *	Carlos Beltran	NYM	of	Was afraid she was going to take Jay Buhner. Beltran was very disappointing last year, but is primed for a bounce back with Delgado in the lineup and a year in NYC under his belt. A nice pick at #49. Mariah’s last two picks get her back in the game.
50	Bat Wings	Huston Street	OAK	cl	Third closer … and it’s not Mariano. I smell a run.
51	Mark Lemke	Adam Dunn	LAA	1b	MOTY projects just 8 players to hit 40+ hr this year. Dunn’s the last one on the board. Eligible at 1b and of.
52	Slackers *	Felix Hernandez	SEA	sp	The Phenom. Should have a great first, full-year campaign. A little early conisdering proven sp’s like Smoltz, Pettitte, Prior, Sheets and Zambrano are still available.
53	PB & J-Lo	Grady Sizemore	CLE	of	Thus far, I’ve got Vlad, Utley at the 2nd thinnest pos., an ace in Pedro, a masher in Hafner. Time for 5-tool guy. Sizemore won’t be here for me in the next round.
54	Bitches	Mariano Rivera	NYY	cl	The fourth closer … and it IS Mariano, the Energizer Bunny of closers.
55	Bad Decisions	Mark Prior	CHC	sp	If he can stay healthy all year, this could be one of the best value picks in the draft. IF.
56	Frank Thomas *	Hideki Matsui	NYY	of	Matsui’s been something of a quiet pick so far this spring. The MOTY Scope Advanced Filters tell us only 7 players are projected for 100+ runs, 100+ rbi’s for 2006. That’s NOT quiet.
57	FutureBacks.com *	Derek Jeter	NYY	ss	Five ss’s went before Jeter, a true 5-tool player. Head-to-head he beats Reyes, Furcal and Rollins in 4 out of 5 cats. (proj). Jeter’s a steal here. And the argument for drafting base-stealing specialists higher takes a major blow.
58	Horny Weasels *	Carlos Lee	MIL	of	Gotta like the bonus sb’s. Like Matsui, he’s been a “quiet” pick so far this year. This is the kind of pick that wins leagues.
59	Ducksnort *	Paul Konerko	CWS	1b	40+ hr potential. Which Pete needs having already drafted Crawford and Figgins. Good pick.
60	Crushers	Joe Mauer	MIN	c	Johjima was a wild card pick, making Mauer the real #2 catcher to go. Won’t hit for as much power as others, but bonus sb’s and avg are nice.

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Pick	Team	Draft Pick			Comments
61	Crushers	Ben Sheets	MIL	sp	A “Competitive” Talent Tier starter. Look for bounce back from injury-shortened 2005.
62	Ducksnort *	Carlos Zambrano	CHC	sp	Another “Competitive” Talent Tier starter. But also a 4.50 Club ComboCat.
63	Horny Weasels *	Morgan Ensberg	HOU	3b	Rob’s auto-pilot has yet to draft him a pitcher. But with Ensberg coming off his best year ever, man, what an offense the Weasels are putting together.
64	FutureBacks.com *	Juan Pierre	CHC	of	Lot of people might think he dropped. Not me. Good pick. Though, he too has yet to draft a pitcher. No worries, he’s got plenty of bats to work a deal for a top-flight sp if need be.
65	Frank Thomas *	Andy Pettitte	HOU	sp	Because of his injury history, Pettitte’s not getting the love he deserves after last year, finishing as the #7 sp with a 59.75 MOTY#. Had a stellar 4.17 K/bb and the 2nd lowest era with at least 200 ip. A nice “quasi-sleeper” pick.
66	Bad Decisoins	Johnny Damon	NYY	of	Ed needed some speed. This wasn’t a “bad decision.”
67	Bitches	Billy Wagner	NYM	cl	Eric’s not going for an ace monopoly, he’s going all out pitching. His only position players are Teixeira and Ichiro. Going to be interesting to see what he’s got up his sleeve.
68	PB & J-Lo	Eric Chavez	PHI	3b	MOTY projects 30+ hr, 100+ rbi for Chavez. With him, I’ve got great production at two thin spots in the infield.
69	Slackers *	Cliff Lee	CLE	sp	Might not win 18 games like last year, but a good starter. Flying under the radar in a lot of drafts so far this year.
70	Mark Lemke	Scott Podsednik	CWS	of	Basically a 2-category guy, runs and good shot at 50+ sb’s. As pitcher heavy as Patrick’s drafted, I fgured him to take another hr hitter. I guess he figures Podsednik’s sb’s to balance ARod’s and Dunn’s power numbers.
71	Bat Wings	Prince Fielder	MIL	1b	A very popular NL RoY candidate. A bit of a sleeper pick at #71. Looks like that my be Brian’s strategy.
72	Average Joe’s *	Jon Smoltz	ATL	sp	A very solid pick to end the 6th Round.

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Pick	Team	Draft Pick			Comments
73	Average Joe’s *	Chipper Jones	SEA	3b	Her roster is rounding out nicer than I would’ve thought given Mariah’s early “run on Mariners.”
74	Bat Wings	Vernon Wells	TOR	of	Hoped he’d fall to me. Will really benefit from the additions of Glaus and Overbay to the TOR lineup.
75	Mark Lemke	Ken Griffey, Jr.	CIN	of	Hoped he’d fall to me. Won’t benefit at all from the additions of Glaus and Overbay to the TOR lineup. (Yes, that was a joke.)
76	Slackers *	Jeff Francouer	ATL	of	Hot as molten lava last year when he came up. One problem, he doesn’t walk and that hurts his obp. MOTY projects a .250 bb/K for him in ’06, and that’s an improvement over his actual ’05. A good outfielder, but there are plenty of better, more-projectable options at this point.
77	PB & J-Lo	Jhonny Peralta	CLE	ss	Was looking for a good power source. Opted to fill a very thin infield position. Wound up doing both. Brian was not happy (ain’t IM fun in drafts?).
78	Bitches	Scott Rolen	STL	3b	Considering some of the other 3b on board, Rolen’s two shoulder surgeries last year make this is a little bit of flyer pick … but only a little.
79	Bad Decisions	Bartolo Colon	LAA	sp	Last year’s AL Cy Young winner – and the Dominican Republic’s Game 1 WBC starter - doesn’t go until second half of Round 7. Bart ain’t getting’ any love. Which synchs with MOTY’s projections – don’t expect 21 wins again this year.
80	Frank Thomas *	Melvin Mora	BAL	3b	See comment about Rolen. Mora is one of those quieter picks that helps win leagues.
81	FutureBacks.com *	Joe Nathan	MIN	cl	2006 “Elite” Tier closer and 3.75 Club ComboCat (projected whip + era = less than “3.75”).
82	Horny Weasels *	B.J. Ryan	TOR	cl	Power-pitching closer. Popular pick with move to TOR. But MOTY has others projected higher.
83	Ducksnort *	Mark Buehrle	CWS	sp	Logged 230+ innings the last four years in a row. He’s either a horse, or possible injury risk. A very solid sp, but a little bit of a “hunch” pick, albeit by the auto-pilot, at this spot.
84	Crushers	Troy Glaus	TOR	3b	See comment about Rolen. If healthy, Glaus is going to like hitting in Toronto in that lineup, and vice versa.

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Pick	Team	Draft Pick			Comments
85	Crushers	Eric Gagne	LAD	cl	Everyone’s wary of Gagne coming of surgery in ’05. Everyone except the MOTY projections. He “slipped” to Round 8.
86	Ducksnort *	Hank Blalock	FLA	3b	A 3b with a .749 ops in 2005. With Miguel Cabrera already at the slot, Pete’s probably gonna fire his auto-pilot and give the job to one of the flight attendants.
87	Horny Weasels *	Brett Myers	PHI	sp	Nice sleeper pick. 13 wins, 200+ K, 3.72 era all contributed to a 36.25 MOTY# last year. Look for very similar MOTY# this year.
88	FutureBacks.com *	Pat Burrell	PHI	of	James is drafting a scary strong offense … and only one pitcher … a closer.
89	Frank Thomas *	Jason Varitek	BOS	c	Rare, 20+ hr potential at the thinnest fantasy position. This might start a run on catchers.
90	Bad Decisoins	Brandon Webb	ARI	sp	The first “real” sleeper pick. MOTY projects a lot of sp ahead of Webb, but also see 171 K’s and a 2.48 K/bb out of him. Could wind up to be a great pick. Then again, he’d probably be available in round 11, too.
91	Bitches	Rickie Weeks	MIL	2b	A great pick at a very thin position, despite only 372 career ab. 20/20 potential make Weeks a popular sleeper pick – which is somewhat of a contradiction.
92	PB & J-Lo	Trevor Hoffman	SD	cl	A 2006 “Elite” closer and 4.00 Club ComboCat in the MOTY DWR, he might be one of the most underappreciated players – not just closers – in the fantasy game. Racked up 40+ saves 7 of the last 10 years … and he missed all but 9 ip of 2003. I can’t tell you how many teams I’ve had him on that won it all. And I get him with the #92 pick.
93	Slackers *	Curt Schilling	BOS	sp	Schilling a “sleeper?” MOTY sees him as a top comeback candidate, but most others are avoiding him. This could be a difference-maker pick.
94	Mark Lemke	Luis Castillo	MIN	2b	Patrick has drafted some very good players thus far. So, I have to admit this pick surprised me. He does need a 2b, but he’s got Podsednik’s uber-steals and there are other very solid 2b on the board. Either he’s playing a hunch or this was a panic pick.
95	Bat Wings	Tim Hudson	ATL	sp	A great pick. Hudson should’ve gone before #95.
96	Average Joe’s *	Barry Zito	OAK	sp	Zito and his wicked curveball are crowd pleasers. Which means MOTY’s a loner on this one. His 2005 stat line is deceiving — 14 wins, 171 K, 1.20 whip, 3.86 era look amazing … BUT he lost 13 games and only had a 1.92 K/bb ratio. He got 131 runs of support, 15th most in MLB — and he lost 13 games … with a 3.86 era. What’s that all about?! Sorry, Zito’s one of the games most overated till he fixes that 52% win percenatage.

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