Fantasy Baseball Manager of the Year

MOTY Subscriber Question #1

March 30, 2006 — Subscribers are always encouraged and free to submit questions, thoughts or anecdotes to MOTY Talk. Periodically, when we feel a subscriber’s email would be helpful to other fantasy baseball fans, we’ll post it and MOTY’s response for all to read.

Player Rankings vs. Talent Tiers

Forgive me … . I'm a long time Fantasy Football player trying to break into FB. I'm trying to figure out your projection sheet. If I look at a guy like Todd Helton ... You have him 9th on the projection sheet. So why wouldn't he be an "Elite" or "All Star" on the Talent Tier page?

Then I see Mariano Rivera is in the "Elite" section but I have to go through some 60 players to find him on the projection sheet.  I understand that you don't necessarily draft in the order of the projections depending on your strategy, but I'm just trying to figure this out.

Thanks, love your material!

Dave Flavin

Dave,

Great question. In broad strokes, the MOTY rankings are a basis for building your personal draft list, while the Talent Tiers (and ComboCats) are meant to help you choose between closely-valued players when you’ve reached the “hair-splitting” stage of your decision process – which “half-hair” do you go with?

Concerning Helton specifically, the short answer is "Albert Pujols."

The much longer answer is this: Helton is projected to have a great year, with a stat line generating the #9 overall Adjusted MOTY# (#7 overall MOTY#). But when comparing him to Albert Pujols, who sets the standard for determining the 1b Talent Tiers, he pales in comparison ... by 28.74 MOTY# pts!

Of course, everybody at EVERY position pales in comparison to Pujols. At 1b, Pujols ranks #1, establishing the 100% percentile. To determine the percentile for all other 1b, we divide their MOTY#s by Pujols' MOTY# — pretty straightforward really, no trade secret formulae revealed. In the case of Helton, that would be 79.57/108.31 ... or 73.47%. And only enough to qualify for the "Competitive" Talent Tier. If the #2 projected first baseman happened to be the standard, Helton would easily qualify as an  "Elite" 1b.

Bottom line, Pujols "blows the curve" for all 1b, Helton included.

As for Mariano, if you've used the MOTY Scope™ to sort the rankings by "closer," you know MOTY projects Rivera as the #1 saves man this year. Making him the standard for all other closers when determining Talent Tiers for that position, and obviously "Elite." The reason he ranks where he does in the overall rankings is that, while valuable and necessary for winning most leagues, closers are nowhere near as valuable as everyday players.

Primarily, their significant contribution is limited to one 5x5 category. Sure, the great closers can help at the other pitching categories, but to a much lesser degree than starting pitchers ... simply because they pitch so few innings. Whereas the top-flight, everyday players like Helton are going to make significant impact in 4 or 5 categories.

Again, the MOTY rankings are intended to be the basis for your personal draft order. The Talent Tiers (and ComboCats) are meant to help you make the call between two very-closely-ranked players. Like, say, Helton and Michael Young. Both very close in the overall rankings and easily “non-eyebrow-raising” Round 1-2 picks, but head-to-head valued differently due to position scarcity (ss a thinner position than 1b) and their position percentiles.

If you're trying to make the call between the two, the Talent Tiers highlight the fact that Michael Young is an "elite" ss and Helton a "competitive" 1b, suggesting you pick the “Elite” ss over the “Competitive” 1b.

In the end, the Talent Tiers serve as a suggestion, a way to help you make the hard call between guys with similar overall fantasy value. If you go Helton over Young, you'd still be all right.

Of course, if you draft Pujols you don't have to worry about any of this.